Putin designs an attack on NATO? It will happen sooner than we thought

"It is clear that he will devote his next six-year term in the Kremlin to following a paranoid obsession with confronting the West," believes Con Coughlin, editor of the foreign policy section of the British "The Telegraph".

According to Coughlin, after setting a post-Soviet-era record of nearly 88 percent of the vote, Putin used his victory to remind Russians that they will never be intimidated by the West.

"No matter how much they want to intimidate us, no matter how much they want to suppress us, our will, our consciousness - no one in history has ever succeeded in doing something like that. It didn't work now and it won't work in the future. Never," Putin said in a speech after the election.

According to Putin's narrative, he is fighting Western attempts to diminish Russia through relentless efforts to persuade countries, such as Ukraine, formerly under Moscow's sphere of influence, to join NATO and the European Union.

"This means that 71-year-old Putin will feel fully justified in using his massive election victory to continue his agenda of trying to rebuild Russia into a global superpower, even if it risks provoking a major conflict with the West.

The Russian president has certainly not been running away from when he was asked about the possibility of engaging in a direct confrontation with the West during a post-election press conference.

"I think in the modern world anything is possible … it's clear to everyone that this is going to be a step away from a full-scale World War III."

Putin's statements confirm recent comments by NATO leaders warning that the full extent of the Russian leader's territorial ambitions extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine," says Coughlin.

He recalled that US President Joe Biden also said that when Putin is done with Ukraine, he will attack NATO countries.

In January, the head of NATO's military committee, Rob Bauer, called on the members to be ready for the outbreak of war with Russia in the next 20 years.

"Nothing Putin has said since his election success should dissuade anyone that the Kremlin is serious about escalating its confrontation with the West. Moreover, it's an assessment that should serve as a wake-up call to NATO states like Britain, who remain in a state of denial about the ability of their armed forces to meet the challenge that the Kremlin's warmongering mentality poses to European security," Coughlin said.

He emphasized the importance of increasing defense spending for NATO member countries, especially given the possibility of Donald Trump winning in the US.

"While only three NATO countries met their NATO obligations in 2014, that figure is likely to rise to 19 this year. But that still leaves the fact that 13 more countries are in default, a failure that will not be overlooked."

Trump who, in his GB News interview with Nigel Farage this week, said he remains committed to NATO - as long as the Europeans pay.

It is interesting that, with Putin now openly threatening Europe's borders and Trump questioning the future of NATO "and there are still countries unwilling to meet their defense obligations. If Putin's re-election fails to alarm them, perhaps nothing will," concludes Coughlin.

"An attack in a shorter time frame than some Western analysts have suggested"

His claims are not unfounded.

Certain financial, economic and military indicators have shown that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with NATO using conventional weapons, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts indicated that the attack is likely to occur in a shorter time frame than some Western analysts have suggested, but not in the near future.

Putin called on Duma faction leaders to act in the interest of the state, not corporations or parties, and stressed the importance of appointing people based on qualifications and competence.

The Russian president is likely trying to create the conditions for stabilizing Russia's long-term financial position at a high level of public spending and signaling that Russia's long-term financial stability will require at least some inconvenience to wealthy Russian security officials with political influence.

Tanjug/Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Putin, in all probability, is aware that financial repression of security "businessmen" could threaten the political relations he has built with them, and he is trying to mitigate this, writes ISW.

In addition, ISW stated that Russia does not appear to be facing a financial crisis, and the increase in military spending is the biggest change in Russian budget policy.

Therefore, analysts suggest that efforts to secure Russia's financial future are likely to focus on creating long-term conditions rather than solving immediate financial problems.

Russia continues to try to circumvent international sanctions, and the International Monetary Fund estimated that Russia's GDP would grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and reported that Russia's GDP grew faster than all G7 economies in 2023.

ISW noted that Polish President Andrzej Duda stressed in an interview with CNBC on March 20 that Putin is stepping up efforts to shift the Russian economy to a military base so that he can attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German studies.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on February 9 that new intelligence indicated that Russia could try to attack a NATO country within three to five years, faster than NATO estimates for 2023.  

The Russian threat depends largely on the financial resources that Putin is willing to devote to the war. It is therefore clear that Putin is preparing to risk damaging his relations with wealthy Russian businessmen. In this context, he constantly announces plans to expand the Russian army.

Putin's attempts to create the conditions to stabilize the Russian economy and finances are most likely part of Russia's financial and domestic preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO, not just a prolonged war in Ukraine.

In addition, the Russian military continues to implement structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine and expand Russia's armed forces in the long term in preparation for a possible future large-scale conflict with NATO.

New divisions and flotillas

On March 20, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense and presented military reforms aimed at improving the combat capabilities of the Russian army.

Shoigu reported that Russia had formed the Dnieper Flotilla and a "brigade" of boats within the flotilla. Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that on 13 March Russian troops were able to launch a limited attack and temporarily land on the right (west) bank of the Kherson Oblast and that the Dnieper River Flotilla could actually support such attempts to cross the river.

Shoigu outlined several ongoing efforts to strengthen Russia's military capabilities, which are more likely part of Russia's long-term efforts to prepare for a potential conventional war with NATO than part of the ongoing war against Ukraine.

He stated that Russia has formed an army corps and a motorized infantry division.

Shoigu also claimed that the Russian army plans to form two combined armies, 14 divisions and 16 brigades by the end of 2024.

ISW continues to assess that Russia currently lacks the manpower, military infrastructure and training capacity to properly staff several brand new divisions. Such reforms, however, are most likely aimed at building Russia's long-term military capabilities.

Personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense may be additional indicators of Russian preparations for a long-term conflict.

Shoigu introduced Lieutenant General Andrei Buliga as Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics during a speech at the Ministry of Defense on March 20.