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03.01.2025.

14:11

Collapse: They are threatened by freezing; This is a brutal attack PHOTO/VIDEO

On New Year's Day, Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine to Europe. Kyiv is calling it a "historic" moment because the refusal to extend the transit contract with Russia's Gazprom has stopped the flow of money financing the invasion of Ukraine.

Izvor: Index.hr

Collapse: They are threatened by freezing; This is a brutal attack PHOTO/VIDEO
Tanjug/AP Photo/Aurel Obreja, File

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However, in neighboring Moldova, that move threatens to cause a crisis.

In Transnistria, a separatist region in eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with only hospitals and key infrastructure having heating, while homes remained without heating.

"The hot water was on until about two o'clock in the morning, I checked. Now it's gone and the radiators are barely warm," Dmitry told the BBC from his flat in the enclave. "We still have gas, but the pressure is very low, just what's left in the pipes."

"Get together in one room, cover the cracks in the window with blankets"

Transnistria broke away from the rest of Moldova in a short war after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are still Russian troops on its territory, and they are completely dependent on Russian gas, for which the authorities in Tiraspol do not pay anything.

"They simply keep track of the debt every month," explains Jakub Pieńkoski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). "But Russia is not interested in collecting that money."

Now that connection via Ukraine has suddenly been cut. In some cities of Transnistria, the authorities set up "heating points", and numbers are available to citizens to help them find firewood. Families were advised to huddle in one room to keep warm, and to cover cracks in windows and doors with blankets.

The first day of the new year brought sunshine, but at night the temperature dropped below zero. "It's cold in the apartment now," says Dmitry. "And we don't know what frosts February will bring." There is still electricity, at least for now.

There is enough coal for 50 days

But Transnistria's main power plant, in Kurchugan, is already using coal instead of Russian gas, and authorities claim there is enough coal for just 50 days. This could also cause problems for the rest of Moldova, which receives 80% of its electricity from Kurchugan.

The government in Chisinau claims that there is enough gas to heat the country until spring and that it will start buying electricity from Europe, but this will mean a huge increase in costs. Last month, a state of emergency was declared, and citizens and businesses were ordered to reduce consumption in order to prepare for possible power outages.

The sudden stoppage of gas flow through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary. Both governments, which are sympathetic to Moscow, have been slower than other European Union members to reduce dependence on Russian fuel and end funding for the war in Ukraine. Paying higher prices for alternative sources will further strain their budgets. But Moldova is poorer and more politically unstable, and a prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences. That could be exactly what Moscow wants.

Political game?

Russia could supply its allies in Transnistria through Turkey, albeit at a higher cost. Gazprom claims that it suspended the delivery because Chisinau owes almost 700 million dollars. The Moldovan government, however, claims that an international audit found the actual debt to be around $9 million, most of which has been repaid.

"We are not treating this as an energy crisis, but as a security crisis caused by Russia with the aim of destabilizing Moldova, both economically and socially," said Olga Rosca, foreign policy adviser to the Moldovan president. "It is clear that this is an operation before the parliamentary elections in 2025, with the aim of returning pro-Russian forces to power," she added.

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are tense. A former member of the USSR, Moldova has begun negotiations to join the EU and has further distanced itself from Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign against her from Moscow. But the campaign did not stop.

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