"This is the end..."; This is where the Third World War begins, and the "dragon's teeth" have already been set

We are talking about the Estonian city of Narva, which is squeezed along the border of Estonia with Russia and which resists, as they claim, constant provocations from Moscow every day, from interference with satellite navigation, to hijacked border demarcation buoys, blaring propaganda, surveillance drones...

"We don't intend to start a Third World War, but we see constant attempts to provoke us into doing something that would have a bigger impact," said Egert Belitšev, director general of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board.

As Politico explains, about a quarter of Estonia's population of 1.4 million are ethnic Russians. Most have Estonian citizenship and most feel close ties to Estonia, but the Kremlin is a "master of exploiting ethnic differences" and therefore always provides special protection for the Russian diaspora. This was done in Georgia and Moldova and it was the pretext for the invasion of Ukraine.

Now there are fears, and they are growing, that the Kremlin could play the same card and try to seize eastern Estonia, with its large population of ethnic Russians, and then provoke NATO into launching a global war in response.

Failure to react, on the other hand, would show that the common defense provision of NATO in Article 5 is meaningless. Russian President Vladimir Putin even suggested in 2022, shortly after Moscow launched an all-out war against Ukraine, that Narva was historically part of Russia.

Narva is the third largest city in Estonia, and is closer to Saint Petersburg than Tallinn. Of the approximately 56,000 inhabitants, 96 percent speak Russian, and a third have Russian passports. Describing the city as "the end of the free world," Belichev, an ethnic Estonian security official, doesn't think Estonia's NATO allies are ready for what could happen here. About 900 British soldiers are deployed in the country as part of the multinational NATO force at the "Tapa" airbase west of Tallinn; France also has troops there.

The British government has pledged to put its 4th Brigade Combat Team on standby for rapid deployment. NATO has created battle groups in most of its eastern member states and plans to expand those groups in Latvia and Lithuania, but has not committed to this in Estonia due to shortages in the British army, which has only two armored brigades at its disposal.

If Russia were to attack, it is unlikely that the NATO forces in "Tapa", supplemented by 7,700 Estonian active personnel (increased to 43,000 in case of war), would have enough firepower to repel the offensive. Furthermore, a recent visit by a Belgian delegation focused on how to evacuate its nationals.

Eyes on Russia

For Tallinn, the question of what to do with its large neighbor to the east is existential. The smallest Baltic state already spends 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense and plans to increase that to 3.7 percent next year, well ahead of larger EU countries.

The fear in Tallinn is what happens after the war in Ukraine subsides, and if Russia takes advantage of any lull in the fighting to attack the vulnerable NATO country. That threat makes border policing even more important.

"When there is an invasion, it is already too late," said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.

"We need to look at the early warning system and be clear in advance that we will react immediately if the first person comes across the border," he adds.

Estonia has a long and bitter experience as a Russian colony. It regained its independence only in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and since then has rushed to tighten ties with the EU and NATO.

Anti-tank dragon's teeth have already been installed in Narva, in order to protect against a quick Russian invasion. Belitšev said the plan is to cover every meter of Estonia's 338-kilometer border with Russia with surveillance technology. But that is easier said than done, points out Politico.

First, there is a 77-kilometer section that runs along the Narva River. Russia's removal of border buoys this summer has led to an increase in incursions into Estonian territory from 18 in the previous two years to 96 this year.

Without the floating markers, Estonian guards have trouble distinguishing between random trespassers and brazen attempts to break into the EU.

"If there are no buoys in the river, it causes a lot of mistakes," Belitšev said. Russian blocking of GPS signals in the area also makes it difficult to track aircraft or drones and detect smugglers, while also making it impossible for rangers to pinpoint locations in the wild. South of Narva, the border passes 126 kilometers through Lake Peipus, after which it winds south another 136 kilometers through two road crossings at Koidula and Luhhamaa, near where Kohver was captured, cutting through the marsh.

While wet terrain is a natural barrier in summer, it hardens in cold temperatures.

"It's like an airport in winter," Belitšev said.

"You can land a plane there if you want."