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25.12.2024.

11:11

This is a crucial question and no one has dared to ask Putin; And what if his answer is "NO"?

In the last working week before Christmas, European officials who gathered for a meeting, wanting to send a historic message, actually discovered something completely different - a total mess.

Izvor: Jutarnji.hr

This is a crucial question and no one has dared to ask Putin; And what if his answer is "NO"?
Foto: Shutterstock/Gevorg Ghazaryan

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"Within the EU, you don't have consensus, and if you don't have consensus, you can't act on behalf of the European Council," thundered Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has long been a thorn in the side of trying to create a coherent European stance toward Russia.

"We also need to know more about the plans of the next US administration at the EU level," admitted Ursula von der Leyen, reports Jutarnji list.

"And therein lies the crux of the matter. Despite more than a year of warnings that the return of Donald Trump to the position of US President could become a real possibility," writes the British Telegraph, Europe has failed to come up with a strong, independent strategy throughout 2024.

Now, the fate of Europe, including Ukraine, remains tied to the goodwill of an ally that could soon prove to be unreliable, the British newspaper further writes. As it goes on, historians could therefore look back on this meeting as Europe's admission that it had no choice but to look for a miracle on the other side of the Atlantic and hope that Donald Trump would conclude a favorable peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, all of this is based on one big assumption - that Russia will meaningfully come to the negotiating table in early 2025. What nobody seems to be asking is: What if it doesn't? Given the dynamics on the battlefield and Moscow's goals, many are convinced that Putin will continue to wage war as long as his economy allows. The Kremlin could act conciliatory in January, claiming that it is open to meaningful talks, but what if its proposals are unacceptable to Ukraine and its allies, the Telegraph asked, adding that this is a key issue that is almost completely ignored in Europe.

For America, the choice might be easy: withdraw. Then what about Europe, which failed to adequately prepare for that scenario, and still cannot allow the fall of Kyiv? Reflecting on this impasse, Telegraph journalist Francis Dearnley recalled Woodrow Wilson's plea in 1917:

"Only a peaceful Europe can be a stable Europe. There must be not only a balance of power, but a community of power; not organized rivalries, but organized common peace."

Yet, he continues, many in the West today seem to have abandoned those principles, instead embracing the language of raw power - "balance of power" and "spheres of influence" are terms we hear all too often.

"Morally, the West should not seek negotiations at all; it should seek to defeat Russia. The failure to do so reflects a dangerous acquiescence built on the wrong ideas," the Telegraph journalist said.

But, the text continues, even if negotiations continue, the outcomes could be bleak indeed. Russia could reject negotiations outright, leaving Europe unwilling to arm Ukraine on its own while Trump withholds support.

Alternatively, Putin could feign good faith, drag out negotiations while the war drags on, only to offer a terrible deal: Cede Russia territories without meaningful security guarantees that Ukraine or Europe could accept.

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