Russia prepares a complete evacuation?

Russian forces have already left the Syrian port of Tartus, according to a report by the German Ministry of Defense, which dpa had access to.

The security guarantees of the new authorities in Syria, after the overthrow of Bashar Assad's regime, are estimated to refer only to the withdrawal of Russian forces, and "not to their permanent stay" in the region.

The airbase in Latakia, Syria, as well as the port of Tartus until recently, is used by Russia to support its center in Libya, which serves to supply Russian units in Africa.

If the airport in Latakia is lost, it will probably have a negative impact on the air transport of goods from Russia to Libya.

Due to longer flights, the amount of cargo that planes can carry will decrease. In addition, non-stop air transport of heavy equipment will only be possible if Turkey's permission to fly through its airspace remains valid.

"And NATO views that with criticism," the ministry document says. It is likely that the loss of the bases will, at least in the short to medium term, negatively affect Russian logistics operations to and from Africa, and that the transport of heavy equipment will be more limited.

This, however, "basically won't significantly affect" the current level of military engagement in Africa, the analysis says.

Until now, Tartus was Russia's only permanent stronghold in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its loss will probably have a negative impact on the reliable Russian presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in a strategic sense - transports of equipment and missing ammunition are now possible only with restrictions, or not at all.

In the analysis, it is estimated that, without an agreement with the new Syrian authorities, Russia will probably have only a "limited possibility of maintaining the presence of its navy in the Mediterranean".