It started; Putin has targeted three European countries without you even knowing it

The Kyiv Independent recalls the case of an Estonian professor arrested by the Internal Security Service (ISS or Kapo) in January 2024 on suspicion of being a Russian spy, and Elizabeth Brough, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, says things are currently resurfacing in a very dramatic way.

Moreover, as stated by the Ukrainian newspaper, reported by Blic, Russia wants to change the borders, and this is supported by the fact that the draft decree was published on the Kremlin's website on May 21, which states that Russia will unilaterally redraw the maritime border with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea.

However, as soon as it appeared, the draft disappeared on May 22. The day after the draft decree disappeared, so did the buoys on the Narva River that mark the separation of Russian and Estonian territory.

Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas described it as a "borderline incident" and said it was being investigated.

"You see a lot of changes in the Baltics. We're trying to convince our people to spend more on defense, to build factories, to cooperate more with Ukraine and to learn everything we can, because we believe that if Ukraine is not able to stop the Russians, then the Russians will not stop. Who knows what will happen next," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds shares similar concerns.

"Right now we're in a hybrid conflict. Unfortunately, this is the neighbor we're dealing with," Sprūds said.

Russia has also been suspected of deliberately jamming GPS systems on commercial aircraft for more than a decade, but incidents in the Baltic Sea region have risen sharply in recent months.

According to an April report based on data from the website GPSJAM.org, about 46,000 planes have reported problems over the Baltic Sea since the previous August, with most of them occurring in Eastern Europe near the borders with Russia. Some incidents have resulted in planes having to turn around mid-flight, and even a plane carrying the UK Defense Secretary has been affected by such disruption.

Although it is almost impossible to definitively prove who is responsible for GPS jamming, signal blocking occurs from the point where the jamming device is deployed up to a distance of 350 kilometers. This means that a device to block GPS signals over the Baltic Sea would have to be located in one of the countries surrounding it.

Unless NATO countries are in on the sabotage project, there remains one obvious suspect - Russia. The Baltic states are also actively countering various other attacks, including those of a cyber nature.

"We have been preparing for cyber attacks for a long time because they started in 2007. We are also starting to convince the Western parties that this is a very important issue," said the Estonian president.

Micael Bydén, the commander-in-chief of Sweden's Armed Forces, said Putin may be seeking dominance over the Baltic Sea and has "set his sights" on the Swedish island of Gotland. Located about 330 kilometers north of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, Gotland is Sweden's largest island, and its central location means it is of vital strategic importance in the Baltic Sea.

"Whoever controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea," Bydén said.

Western analysts have described the size and power of Russia's Baltic fleet as "somewhat limited," and when Russia conducted military exercises in the Baltic Sea in August 2023, about 30 warships and boats were to participate, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

However, that's not all Russia has in Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is essentially Russia's weapons depot and has a lot of military operational equipment in use, not just in storage.

It is impossible to know for sure what Russia's intentions are, but the opinion of experts varies from an escalating hybrid war to a direct intention to invade the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The leaders of all three countries are well aware of such a possibility.