A bloody battle looms

Late last month, Russian forward units seized a mine just outside Mykhailivka, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast. Their mini-advance was part of a sweeping Russian offensive. It began in February with the capture of Avdiivika. Its goal: to expand a narrow salient deep into Ukrainian territory and overrun the city of Pokrovsk, 18 kilometers away.

As the Guardian writes, and the Croatian portal Index reports, a bloody battle is looming.

Russian soldiers are only ten kilometers away. The noise of shells is constantly heard. Last week, Russian warplanes destroyed bridges in and around the city, preparing the ground for a future attack. One of the destroyed bridges connected the T0504 road with the nearby town of Mirnograd. Another bomb damaged the bridge above the train station in Pokrovsk, which is now closed, along with supermarkets, restaurants and banks.

Pokrovsk and Mirnograd were once home to 100,000 people. Most but not all have now fled, with sections of the city spookily empty. Bombs have hit many central buildings, including the office of Ukraine’s pension fund.

The Russians are pressing from two directions

They swallowed up the town of Novohrodivka – population 18,000 – when its Ukrainian defenders retreated last week, seemingly without much of a fight. Russian forces are also moving forward from the south-east and from Ukrainsk, which fell a few days ago. Beyond a patch of forest and a railway track from Mykhailivka is the Ukrainian-held town of Selydove.

The Kremlin’s creeping progress comes at a significant human cost. Sitting in front of a bank of monitors, Fanagey, the artillery commander of the national guard's 15th brigade, zoomed in on grisly images. Six dead Russians could be seen near a row of old graves marked with blue wooden crosses. “The whole village is a cemetery for them,” the major said.

The Russians have changed tactics

The Russians have changed tactics. These days they rarely use armoured vehicles in a battlefield saturated with drones. Instead, small groups of 10 to 15 soldiers sneak forward on foot, day and night, the commander said, using different paths. If undetected, they assemble at a rendezvous point and try to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. 

Two weeks ago the Russians sent a mechanised column into Mykhailivka, consisting of a Soviet-era T-72 tank and two infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian soldiers opened fire. The tank’s crew – driver, gunner and mechanic – bailed out and hid in some shrubs. A drone finished them off. The Ukrainians drove away in the tank. “It’s been a long time since we got a working armed vehicle from the enemy,” said Stanislav, the major’s deputy.

According to Stanislav, Russia is able to advance because its army is much bigger. “We don’t have enough ammo. For every one shell we fire, they fire seven. Or more. We lack infantry,” he admitted. “The situation is a bit better than six months ago. But with this tempo of fighting it isn’t enough. Russia is a big country. It has money and resources. It funds its military with oil and gas", he said.

The battle for Pokrovsk is very likely to be the culmination of Moscow’s military campaign this year. A decade ago, Russian forces covertly seized the eastern regional capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk. Vladimir Putin’s political and strategic objective is to capture the whole of Donetsk oblast, as well as three other Ukrainian provinces he “annexed” in 2022. Stanislav said taking Pokrovsk would not be easy for the Russians. “We can hold it,” he said.