Never more direct: The end of the war in Ukraine is near; This is a list...

In an interview with "National Interest", Khalilzad said that there are four reasons why 2025 could be the year the Ukrainian war ends, but there are also many reasons why it could continue in the foreseeable future.

Chief among them is the large gap between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky when it comes to the potential conditions in which they would find themselves.

However, according to Khalilzad, it seems that the factors that favored the end of the war are getting stronger. This is a list of factors that Khalilzad considers decisive for ending the war...

First factor: Attack on the Kursk region

The first factor, he says, is the brilliant and bold move by the Ukrainian military to attack Russia's Kursk region. In the short term, it certainly had a big impact on the state of affairs - the war spilled over into Russia itself and Moscow proved vulnerable.

Such developments likely made Putin's continuation of the war somewhat more controversial among Russians.

Limited options for escalation

The attack in Russia also boosted morale in Ukraine. For most of this year, Ukrainians have been fighting and suffering economically, resulting in declining support for the war.

The Ukrainian attack also slowed the decline in Western political support for the war in Ukraine. This has imposed additional military and reputational costs on Russia, and if the occupation of Russian territory can be sustained, it could be a trump card in negotiations to end the war.

The second factor: The advancement of the Ukrainians is very risky

Also, as another important factor, the advance of Ukrainian forces in Russia was something very risky. Around 10,000 troops had to be withdrawn from their previous critical defense mission in eastern Ukraine, an opportunity for the Kremlin to seize, as it has indeed done, particularly in Donetsk, where Putin's forces are advancing.

Russian tactics, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly brutal, resulting in increased Ukrainian casualties and losses, both on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine and elsewhere.

It seems, as assessed by this foreign policy expert, that Russia's goal is to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure as much as possible for the upcoming winter.

Attacks on Ukrainian manufacturing facilities and infrastructure are increasing and likely to continue. The result will most likely be a reduction in the availability of electricity to about twelve hours a day, which will be a great burden on the civilian population and will probably make the continuation of the war even more unpopular.

The third factor: Limited opportunities for major military escalation on both sides

The third moment is that the possibilities of Russia and Ukraine for a major military escalation are very limited and risky. Ukraine wants a large number of long-range weapons that would threaten Russia even more or more directly involve NATO or individual members in the conflict.

The Ukrainian president and his team probably believe that these would be steps that can turn the war in their favor.

However, the prospects for both of these options are not great due to the potential risks related to escalation and conflict between Russia and the West, as assessed by the US and other key Western leaders.

Russia, meanwhile, has threatened to resort to nuclear weapons, but such a move would carry huge risks on multiple fronts and is unlikely to happen, except in circumstances so extreme as to be unlikely.

According to Khalilzad, the real options are an imminent agreement or an agreement after a few more years of fighting.
 

The fourth factor: the extension of the war indefinitely is not in the favor of the USA and Europe

The fourth factor is the trends in the USA and Europe, which are not in favor of prolonging the war indefinitely. The US role was key in supporting what was said to be a heroic Ukrainian resistance, and the Europeans were the second most important source of that support.

However, after the upcoming presidential election, the US is likely to reduce its support over time. If he is elected, Donald Trump will soon start advocating for a diplomatic solution, according to US diplomat, but in case of victory, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will have a hard time maintaining the current level of support.

The trend in Europe, especially in Germany, after recent elections, in which political groups opposed to supporting the war in Ukraine scored well, is likely to lead Berlin to make significant adjustments to its policy. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already announced his determination to advocate for a peace agreement through a peace conference in which, unlike the last peace conference in Switzerland, Russia would also participate.

After the elections in the USA, as he points out, the American allies should also accept an amicable solution to the war in Ukraine as their main goal. In support of this goal, the strategy must be two-pronged - support for Ukraine must remain strong because without it Putin will not be interested in a negotiated solution, as well as equally strong engagement with both Russia and Ukraine on the modalities of the negotiations and the conditions for a reasonable outcome, concludes Zalmay Khalilzad to the National Interest.