That's it, Erdoğan announced the end?

"I am working with all my strength, because this is the final for me. By law, this election will be my last."

That sentence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan caused a storm in the West.

Agencies reported: "Erdoğan is thinking about leaving." Or: "Erdoğan announces withdrawal".

In Turkey, however, it was greeted with derision.

"He's giving up again," wrote many on social media, reminding how many times Erdoğan has already announced his departure: two, three or more...

According to Dr.  Hakkı Taş, a political scientist from the German Institute for Global Studies (GIGA), people are rightly skeptical, because they have already heard similar announcements by Erdoğan several times.

"He spoke about his last elections in 2009. Then in 2012, he said that he would run for the head of the party for the last time. And in 2023, he promised that he would ask for voter support for the last time and then hand over the baton to the younger generation," Taş recalls.

And now again the same statements that the upcoming local elections will be his last. At the same time, after each election, Erdoğan continued to implement his program and at the same time expanded his powers.

Today, he is more powerful than ever. He is the first head of state who is also the head of the government. In addition, he is also the president of his party.

That is why Taş believes that Erdoğan's statement is more of a tactical move. He uses the emotions of his own voters and once again asks for their trust in order to mobilize them, says the expert of the German institute.

In power for 22 years?

Erdoğan, an Islamic-conservative politician, has been in power for 22 years - first as prime minister, and since 2014 as president. Nevertheless, the local elections held on March 31 are very important to him. In the last ten years, several referendums, parliamentary, local and presidential elections have been held in Turkey. Politics, society and the economy are constantly in election campaign mode. After the local elections at the end of March, the situation should calm down. If early parliamentary or presidential elections are not called, Erdoğan will rule for the next four years. Emboldened by his victory in the local elections, he wants to expand his power even further and, if possible, change the constitution. And he is also thinking about his successor. For that, he especially needs economically strong metropolises - Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya. They account for almost half of the country's economic production.

First of all, it is the 17-million-strong metropolis of Istanbul. Polls predict a fight for every vote. Since 2019, the city has been in the hands of the largest opposition, the Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP). Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu wants to be re-elected. The 52-year-old is known throughout Turkey and so far his election campaign is running successfully.

His opponent, Murat Kurum from Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), has so far shown himself to be a pale figure in the campaign. Although he was the Minister of Urban Planning and Environmental Protection for five years, he remained relatively unknown. Since the introduction of the presidential system, citizens do not even know the names of government members, because only Erdoğan is always in the foreground.

Turgut Altinok, Erdoğan's candidate in the capital Ankara, is not successful in the campaign either. Despite the harsh nationalist-religious slogans, he did not collect many points. Polls show that incumbent mayor Mansur Javas from the opposition CHP is leading closely.

That's why Erdoğan once again felt that he had to get involved in the campaign himself. For days now, the 70-year-old has been going from one big pre-election rally to another, giving speeches and encouraging supporters. It's like his name is on the ballot.

Erdoğan is aware of the role Istanbul plays in the politics of the whole of Turkey. And his career began in that city - Erdoğan was mayor there from 1994 to 1998. Istanbul is economically strong and it is not for nothing that they say in Turkey: "Whoever wins in Istanbul, wins in the country."

The metropolises where the vote will be held are an important source of income for Erdogan's survival in power. After the change of government in many cities in 2019, it came to light that the AKP had been employing party cadres in city administrations for years. Numerous large orders to party-loyal entrepreneurs also went from there. Privileges were also granted to nationalist and Islamist brotherhoods. Hakki Taş, an expert from the German institute GIGA, believes that a victory in the upcoming elections would raise the self-confidence of the ruling party. The government, he believes, will interpret every victory as support for them and will continue with an even tougher course.

 

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