Orban "is rising"

The Hungarian leader built a coalition of like-minded people sharing his strategic goal – to create a "Europe of nation-states".

Under the leadership of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the new far-right Eurosceptic group Patriots for Europe has become the third largest bloc in the European Parliament.

Analyst Mutjaba Rahma, director of Eurasia Group's Europe practice, in his commentary for Politiko, assessed the success of Orbán's initiative as an extraordinary achievement. The Hungarian leader, he says, managed to reorganize the far right of Europe around his image and that of his Fidesz party, which has been pushed into the political wilderness after leaving the center-right European People's Party group in 2019.

The creation of the Patriots group shows that Orbán is far less isolated than initially thought, able to build a coalition of like-minded people who share his strategic goal – to create a "Europe of nation-states", writes Rahma.

"It suggests that extreme right-wing groups in the EU are more aligned with this vision than before. And they represent a direct challenge to the more pragmatic populism advocated by Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni," his author's text states.

It is also recalled that Orbán cemented an alliance with France's National Assembly, the continent's largest far-right party, despite failing to win a majority in the country's snap elections. Similarly, Geert Wilders' Dutch far-right Freedom Party (PVV) also defected to the Patriots from the former far-right parliamentary group after winning last year's Dutch election and entering a coalition government for the first time.

Still, this consolidation will not completely change the balance of power and is unlikely to affect EU policymaking — at least in the short term, Rahma argues but adds that medium-term challenges are quite worrying.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group chaired by Meloni will not merge with the Patriots. Two main members - Meloni's Brothers from Italy party and Poland's opposition party Law and Justice - have refused to join Orban.

Meloni will continue to straddle the field between the far right and the EU establishment while keeping her options open.

But ECR is losing ground. Its ambitions to become the third largest group in parliament have been thwarted. And despite strong relations with the brothers from Italy, the Spanish Vox party left to join the Patriots.

Moreover, having won the support of the Greens, von der Leyen will now be less dependent on the Italian leader — which partly explains why she abstained from the European Council's decision to grant Germany another mandate. That was an attempt to reassert her importance and establish some leverage over von der Leyen.

This is because, over time, changes in the balance of power in the Council, the real seat of power in the EU, are likely to prove consequential.

Patriots currently control only one seat in the Council - Orban's. They also have indirect influence in two other places, the Netherlands and Italy, where the PVV and the far-right League party are partners in the ruling coalitions in their countries and thus can exert some influence on the government.

However, the number of Patriots in the Council will probably grow over time, as several national elections scheduled for the coming months and years have a good chance of producing more far-right governments. For example, elections are scheduled for September in Austria, where the extreme right-wing Freedom Party is leading in the polls, and next fall in the Czech Republic, where the nationalist Action of Disgruntled Citizens party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babis is. in leadership.

So, while far-right parties will continue to struggle with internal divisions over policy, and von der Leyen will still be able to rule from the center, the outcome of several national elections could give the group greater representation. And this development would risk undermining EU cohesion in key areas, above all in the EU budget, enlargement, and foreign policy — when it comes to Ukraine, says Rahma.

Through a mixture of cajoling and financial arm-twisting, the EU has found ways to circumvent Orban's repeated vetoes on Ukraine. A more determined group of reluctant governments has proved much more difficult to contain.