20.05.2024.
11:55
Russian minesweeper sunk; This changes everything PHOTO
On Sunday, the Ukrainian military sank another ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, apparently using ATACNS missiles with warheads weighing more than 200 kilograms.
These missiles could threaten Russia's strategic Crimean bridge.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry claims its forces sank the minesweeper Kovrovets in a nighttime attack on the port of Sevastopol in Crimea, about 240 kilometers from the front line.
The loss was also confirmed by Russian channels on the Telegram network.
"Another bad day for the Russian Black Sea Fleet," the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense wrote.
Since the beginning of the full Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainians have sunk or severely damaged more than ten large ships of the Black Sea Fleet, which before the start of the war numbered about thirty large ships.
The sinking of a large minesweeper – one of two in the fleet – is therefore not so striking in itself. What is striking is the way the Ukrainians may have managed to sink the ship: with two American ATACMS missiles. These missiles are not usually weapons for attacking ships, but are used for land attacks.
Sources say the missiles are accurate within a range of 10 meters. This is not enough for precision attacks on ships with a single large warhead. Some models of ATACMS missiles, such as the M39 with a range of 160 kilometers and the M-39A1 with a range of over 300 kilometers, which Ukraine received from the US in at least two shipments of at least 120 missiles, release hundreds of pieces, which neutralizes the problem of accuracy.
Although these smaller shells can damage a ship, they are unlikely to sink it, as it requires piercing the hull. If Ukraine actually hit Kovrovets with ATACMS, it could mean two things.
First, that in addition to the M30 and M-39A1, Ukraine also received M48 missiles with a range of 270 kilometers or M57 missiles with a range of over 300 kilometers with warheads weighing around 210 kilograms. Second, that these missiles are more accurate than many observers have assumed.
The implications of this are huge.
For starters, the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol are within range of M-39A1, M48, and M57 missiles, which means they're in big trouble.
"If ATACMS is destroying Russian warships in Sevastopol, it's unlikely that port would be useful to the Russians," said Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
The S-400 long-range anti-aircraft weapon, which the Russians use to protect Sevastopol and the nearby Belbek air base, failed to stop the missiles.
"The Russians have almost no counterweapon for them," says Nuno Felix, a Portuguese military consultant.
Equally problematic for the Russians is the threat posed by precision ATACMS with powerful warheads to the Crimean bridge connecting southern Russia with occupied Crimea. This accuracy could guarantee that the M48 or M57 would hit the bridge as well as the ship, explains Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher at the Oslo Nuclear Project in Norway.
The Crimean bridge is not the only way to supply Russians to Crimea - there is also a railway line through occupied southern Ukraine. However, if Ukraine can cut the railroad and destroy the Crimean bridge, it could isolate Russian troops in Crimea.
"ATACMS really makes a difference when it comes to the war's key territory: Crimea," Felix wrote. That the missiles may have sunk the Russian minesweeper is just a bonus.
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