Betrayal? The "purge" in the Kremlin has begun...

Ivanov was charged with accepting bribes on Tuesday after his arrest, but some media, although Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected such constructions, speculate that Ivanov was arrested on suspicion of treason, and some analysts and Russian commentators speculate that Ivanov's detention is a warning to his boss, Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu.

"Now there are many different interpretations about all this... You have to focus on the official information," Peskov told reporters, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin had been informed in advance of Ivanov's detention.

However, not everyone is convinced of Moscow's official position regarding Ivanov's detention. Some Russian commentators claim that the arrest is a major blow to Shoigu.

"If he can't sort it out somehow, he'll be the next one to fall. This person is 100 percent his man," an anonymous source told a popular military Telegram channel.

Some Western observers seem to agree. Vladimir Putin "doesn't sign it unless he sends a message to Shoigu, one that says something along the lines of 'that could have been you,'" David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell University in Washington, told Newsweek.

On Wednesday, Shoigu dismissed Ivanov as deputy defense minister, according to Russian state news agency TASS. Hours earlier, there were reports of Ivanov's arrest on bribery charges, on what a Moscow court described as particularly large-scale. If convicted, he could face up to 15 years in prison. Ivanov denied the accusations.

What did Ivanov do?

Before his arrest, Ivanov was in charge of Russian military infrastructure projects. He has been responsible for asset management, deployment of military forces and medical support for the Russian Ministry of Defense since 2016, and Forbes ranked him among the richest people in the Russian security establishment.

Perhaps more importantly, many considered him one of Shoigu's closest allies. The two worked together for many years, including when Ivanov was deputy prime minister of the Moscow region while Shoigu was governor of the region. Russian authorities also arrested Sergei Borodin, an alleged business partner of Ivanov, for complicity in corrupt activities.

"Since corruption among the highest Russian officials is endemic, it is hard to believe that Shoigu's deputy was arrested only because of corruption," says Mark N. Katz, an expert on Russian issues from the American George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government.

"Either he did something else that someone opposed or it was a move aimed at weakening Shoigu - or both," Katz added.

"This resembles Prigozhin's case"

Shoigu has often been accused of mishandling the war on the battlefield in Ukraine, especially by pro-war military bloggers and especially by the late Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances after leading a mercenary group's rebellion against Moscow and military top.

Katz says that this incident reminded him of the public spat between Shoigu and Prigozhin, in which Prigozhin did not hesitate to criticize the military leadership.

"This arrest reminds us of Prigozhin's criticism of incompetence within the highest Russian military leadership last year. Prigozhin is no longer there, but the problems he spoke about publicly remain," Katz points out.

Another expert says that the real question is not whether the deputy minister is corrupt.

"Rather, the question is whether he - and more importantly, Shoigu - have become power centers in themselves," points out William Reno,  Professor of Political Science from Northwestern University.

Corruption in the current regime is a strategic advantage that is tolerated and even encouraged in order to cultivate a person's loyalty and dependence on the political leadership, and then used against them when they become a threat or will be used as a convenient target to blame for the regime's own shortcomings", says Reno.

Does Shoigu present an existential threat to Putin?

"The allegation of corruption at this time helps undermine public trust and support for his boss, Shoigu. Accusing a senior official of corruption also underscores Putin's sovereign right to punish as a leader, strengthening his authority among his subordinates and in the eyes of Russian citizens," he adds.

The arrest of Ivanov could be just the beginning of what is to come for Shoigu, according to Silbey.

"Remember that being 'too powerful' is not an obstacle to Putin - or any dictator - removing someone, it's an incentive. The more powerful someone is, the greater the existential threat to the dictator. Joseph Stalin's golden rule was 'do unto others before they they do to you,'" says Silbey and adds that it would not be a surprise if Shoigu was next or if he suddenly retired on his own, reports Jutarnji.

At the same time, some interpret the whole case as a sign of tension and rivalries at the top of the government as Putin prepares to appoint a new government next month, after winning a new six-year mandate in March.

Special attention was paid to the arrest of Ivanov by the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which closely monitors all developments related to Russia. Russian media reported, according to ISW, that Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) had been collecting materials on Ivanov's corruption for at least a month, and possibly as long as five years. The FSB said the FSB's military counterintelligence division was involved in the investigation into Ivanov, and Russian opposition sources noted that it was unusual for a military counterintelligence service to deal with corruption issues.

Russian opposition media outlet Important Stories, ISW points out, reported that two sources close to the FSB said that Russian authorities suspect Ivanov of treason and that Putin ordered the FSB to detain Ivanov under the pretext of bribery after convincing the FSB that Ivanov had committed treason. Russian sources have not yet specified what kind of betrayal it would be.

In any case, Ivanov's arrest has fueled speculation in the Russian news space about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian military and claims that the arrest is actually part of factional strife in the Kremlin. And ISW analysts point out that Russian insider sources claim that Ivanov was a great supporter and close associate of Sergei Shoigu and that his arrest is probably part of an effort to reduce the power and influence that Shoigu gained and further strengthened after the Wagner uprising in June of last year.

Is Medvedev behind everything?

Russian insider sources differ on which faction is trying to undermine Shoigu's position, but one of them, as ISW points out, claims that the first deputy of Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU), Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, had Ivanov 'on target' as Shoigu's deputy tried to fire Alekseev and another insider source claimed that a faction linked to former Russian president, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and Kremlin watchdog Dmitry Medvedev is aiming to displace Shoigu.

An inside source claims that Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko was Ivanov's patron and that Timchenko usually defended him against Putin.

A prominent military blogger associated with the Wagner Group, on the other hand, claims that Timur Ivanov is a member of the Kremlin faction that lobbied for a "soft exit" from the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, ISW points out that from the series of claims it cannot be concluded unequivocally that the arrest of Ivanov is connected to some kind of conflict between factions.

This is just the beginning? 

Russian sources call Ivanov's arrest the first of many expected personnel changes, especially when it comes to the Russian deputy defense ministers. One military blogger was more direct and claimed that the arrest was the beginning of a purge in the Russian military structures, although so far there are no signs of more extensive action in that direction.

Russian ultra-nationalist military bloggers enthusiastically welcomed Ivanov's arrest, but also used it as an opportunity to publicly criticize the defense ministry, lamenting failures during the war and arguing that the arrest of ministry officials was long overdue. Some pointed out that the arrest brings the much-desired justice and, if nothing else, changes and that it is an opportunity to clean the Ministry of Defense of dirt and corruption.

Russian military bloggers had not directly criticized the ministry or officials with such ferocity since before Wagner's rebellion and Prigozhin's death last August. However, many expect Shoigu to retain his post. Under his leadership, Russian forces have regrouped and taken the initiative in Ukraine, achieving a number of successes over the past two months.

What is particularly interesting about Ivanov's case is that in 2022, the Foundation for the Fight against Corruption (FBK), an organization founded by the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny under circumstances that have never been fully clarified, accused him of participating in concepts of corruption during the construction of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, including the destroyed Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which the Russians began to rebuild after the conquest.

In the current accusations against Ivanov, it is specifically stated that he profited from construction projects in Mariupol. Ivanov was directly involved in the reconstruction of that city.