America is falling apart: More than 25 states want independence

Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texas Nationalist Movement, made the claim in the latest edition of his Texas News podcast.

Questions about the integrity of the US have grown in the face of heated partisan politics in Congress and a contested 2020 presidential election.

In February 2023, Republican Marjorie Taylor Green sparked controversy after calling for a "national divorce" between "red states and blue states."

Between February 2 and 5, YouGov asked 35,000 Americans whether they would support their country seceding from the union and becoming an independent nation. Results varied widely -- from a high of 36 percent in Alaska, 31 percent in Texas, and 29 percent in California to a low of 13 percent in Minnesota.

Across the US, the survey found that 23 percent of Americans want their country to become independent, with 51 percent opposed and 27 percent unsure.

Half of the US states would vote for full independence in hypothetical referendums, according to leading Texas nationalists. Miller claims that the poll's support for independence was lower than it should have been because "polling companies have no idea how to examine the issue of secession or withdrawal from the union."

To support this argument, Miller cited a separate YouGov survey conducted in February for the Independent California Institute. A survey of 500 California adults found that 58 percent believed Californians "would be better off than they are now in a scenario where California peacefully becomes an independent country with a friendly relationship with the US."

Miller said the question more accurately gauged support for secession because it specified that it would be peaceful and focused on whether individuals thought they would be better off personally.

Miller said there was a 29-point difference between the two surveys — with 29 percent of Californians saying they would support independence in the first, while 58 percent said independence would make them better off in the second.

By rounding this figure to 30 percent and then extrapolating it across the US, Miller concluded that in 25 states the pro-independence campaign would win a hypothetical independence referendum.

Analysis by Newsweek found that there were 23 states that could provide a majority for independence if the 30 percent support for independence figure in the initial YouGov poll were added.

Newsweek doesn't support these figures, and the 29 percent discrepancy between the two figures in California could be explained by any number of factors, meaning it can't be extrapolated across the nation.

Moreover, another poll in California asked whether residents thought they would be better off in an independent country, not whether they supported it. In his podcast, Miller added, "The United States is falling apart. Some people think Texas is the only state with one foot out the door, but there are actually other states where support for secession is growing and poised to reach a tipping point."

"The United States is falling apart! States are poised to withdraw and in greater numbers than I think the public is generally aware of," Miller added.

Speaking to Newsweek, Professor Matt Qvotrup, political scientist and author of  ''I Want to Be Free: A Practical Guide to Creating a New Country'', argued that support for independence often increases during referendum campaigns.

"In independence referendums, you often see those who want to secede win the campaign. In Scotland, the SNP (Scottish National Party) came in with 29 percent at the start of the campaign and finished with 45 percent. In Catalonia, Quebec and Scotland, support for independence was in the 1920s when the issue was first discussed. This was in all cases within touching distance of independence," Qvortrup said.