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21.03.2025.

11:48

"They're going to attack us, are we together or not?"

Estonia faces increased insecurity due to its proximity to the Russian border and historical tensions. Although it is in NATO, the fear of Russian provocations creates insecurity, writes the BBC.

Izvor: Index.hr

"They're going to attack us, are we together or not?"
EPA-EFE/VALDA KALNINA

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Legislative measures, such as increasing defense investment and building bunkers, show the country's determination to prepare for a possible conflict, the article added.

"We are used to their tricks and tactics. The Russian threat is not new to us. Currently, there are constant provocations and tensions on the border," said the head of the Estonian border police, Egert Belitsev.

He added that border police had filmed Russian guards removing buoys on the Narva River that mark the border between the two countries.

About 96% of people in Narva are native speakers of Russian, and many have dual citizenship. Estonia is worried that Putin, if he becomes more secure, could use the large ethnic Russian community around Narva as a pretext for an invasion, they say, adding that this is a plan he has already implemented in Georgia and Ukraine.

"We use drones, helicopters and planes, which use GPS signals, and there is constant GPS jamming. Russia has a huge influence on how we carry out our missions," Belitsev said.

They
EPA-EFE/VALDA KALNINA

Camille Grand, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investments, believes that, after Ukraine, Putin would probably be more inclined to target a non-NATO country (such as Moldova) than challenge a NATO member because of the lower risk of international retaliation.

If peace is achieved in Ukraine, senior researcher dr. Mesmere predicts, Russia is likely to continue disinformation campaigns and cyberwarfare in Europe, as well as sabotage and espionage in the Baltic Sea.

"I think they will continue with all kinds of destabilizing activities, even if there is peace that is favorable to Ukraine," said Grand, but he does not want to completely rule out the possibility that Putin could target the Baltics.

What is NATO's influence?

Russian President Vladimir Putin would probably first consider how NATO allies would react in the event of an attack on Estonia.

Would the US, France, Italy or Great Britain risk war with Russia over Narva, a small part of Estonia on Russia's eastern border? If NATO does not react, it would benefit Putin, the BBC estimates.

Also, a Russian invasion would destabilize the entire Baltic, as foreign investors would probably leave the region.

There is concern in Estonia that Donald Trump could reduce the US military presence in Europe.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur points out:

"If they attack even a part of Estonia, it would be an attack on the entire NATO. Are we together or not?"

New legal solutions to strengthen defense

Due to constant insecurity in the Baltics and in Poland, countries in the region are introducing new legal solutions to strengthen defense.

Poland has announced mandatory military readiness for every adult male, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is considering a French proposal to share a "nuclear umbrella" with European allies, in case the American "nuclear shield" is withdrawn.

In the Baltic countries, such as Estonia, laws are being introduced that require new buildings to have shelters, and they plan to spend five percent of GDP on defense from 2026.

Lithuania plans 5-6 percent, and Poland 4.7 percent of GDP, in order to build the largest possible army in Europe.

"We don't want a war, but if it happens, we are fully prepared to defend Estonia. Estonia is increasingly looking for the reliable support of its European allies, and Great Britain plays a big role. Britain has 900 soldiers stationed in Estonia and has promised to increase its presence.

At the Tappa base, Army officer Alex Humphreys highlights the importance of armored vehicles and Challenger tanks to the defense.

"All of NATO feels exposed. Everyone in the Baltics and Eastern Europe feels threatened by the Russian Federation," Humphreys says.

"We don't want a war, but if it happens, we are fully prepared to defend Estonia. Estonia is investing in new military bunkers and drones, although its forces alone would not be strong enough to defend against a Russian attack," he adds.

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