Canada joins the EU?

Although it is more about a strategic fantasy than a realistic plan, the discussion itself reveals how global geopolitical upheavals are reshaping traditional alliances and ties, writes Index.hr.

The origins of this idea go back to 2017, when the revolutionary CETA trade agreement came into force, eliminating almost all tariffs between Canada and the EU.

The story about Canada and the EU, however, intensified again when US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs on all goods imported from the three largest trading partners - China, Mexico and Canada.

The tariffs imposed, as well as the idea or threat that Canada could become the 51st state of the USA, have caused many to start thinking about alternatives.

Thus, the possibility of Canada strengthening ties with Europe, which is also under attack from Trump's tariffs, and even becoming part of the EU, is being discussed again.

Through membership in the EU, Canada would become the first non-European member, which would permanently change its position in the world order. However, legal problems are inevitable.

Article 49 of the EU Treaty clearly states that membership refers to "European countries", and Canada is geographically outside that framework.

Therefore, legal experts point out that any serious approach of Canada to the Union would require a redefinition of the fundamental principles of the EU, which would cause resistance from countries like France and Poland, which insist on preserving the "European character" of the EU.

Economy: New Era or Turnaround?

If Canada becomes a member of the EU, the most dramatic changes will occur in economic flows.

By entering the EU market, Ottawa would gain access to 447 million consumers, which would enable diversification beyond the oil sector. European companies, on the other hand, would profit from Canadian deposits of lithium and rare earth minerals, key to the green transition.

For EU citizens, such a move could mean cheaper imports of Canadian maple syrup, apples and electric vehicles.

On the other hand, farmers in France and Spain would fear competition from cheaper Canadian products subsidized by local governments.

It would also disrupt the IT sectors, where wages are expected to rise due to increased demand for specialists, while the mining industry in Sweden and Romania may suffer due to competition with Alberta's oil giants.

Everyday Life: Changes on Both Sides of the Atlantic

For Canadians, joining the EU would bring a number of concrete changes. Products with the label "EU organic certification" would appear in shops, and plastic bags would become rare due to stricter ecological standards.

Students from Canada could study in Berlin or Bologna without visas, while tourists from Germany would discover Canadian national parks en masse.

The biggest obstacle would be cultural - forced learning of French or German in schools would cause a revolt in Anglophone provinces.

Europeans, on the other hand, would feel the impact through two channels. First, increased availability of Canadian natural gas would help reduce dependence on Russian sources, which would particularly benefit the Baltic countries and Poland.

Second, prices would stabilize in sectors where Canada can offer cheaper products – automotive or pharmaceuticals.

Geopolitical earthquake

The US, Canada's largest trading partner, would consider this a betrayal of the Monroe Doctrine, which prohibits European interference in the American sphere of influence.

Massive retaliatory measures would be expected - from tariffs on European cars to the reduction of military cooperation through NATO.

Russia, on the other hand, would use the opportunity for propaganda about the "weakening of the West", while China would invest additional funds in Canadian lithium mines, seeking to ensure supremacy in battery production.

Is that even possible?

However, the reality of Canadian membership in the EU remains small. In addition to the geographical dispute, the problem is also disunity within the Union itself.

Countries like Croatia and Greece would fear that Ottawa would "pull away" funds intended for less developed regions, while the Netherlands and Germany would advocate membership due to economic gains.

The ratification process would take at least two decades, and there is a risk that Canadians themselves would reject EU accession in a referendum, fearing the loss of their national identity.

Finally, as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently pointed out: "Our relationship with the EU is deep, but the Atlantic remains a symbolic and real border."