Goodbye, Viktor?

According to the measurements of the research Center 21, the opposition party Tisza (Respect and Freedom), led by Péter Magyar, wins 42 percent, and Orbán's Fidesz 40 percent of the votes of voters who would certainly go to the polls, while Fidesz leads with 29 to 26 percent among the entire population.

All other parties are below or around the threshold of five percent, which means that the Hungarian political scene is de facto two-party.

Then another poll published by the Publicus Nepsava agency appeared and Tisza wins here in both categories. According to them, Péter Magyar has the support of 24 percent of the total population, and Fidesz 23 percent, while in the group of voters who announce that they will definitely go to the elections and vote, that ratio is still 39-37 percent in favor of Magyar's party.

Will Orban "fall"?

Orbán's circle reacted immediately, and soon after, the results of the Nezopont Institute, close to the authorities, were published, according to which Fidesz was at 49 percent among some voters, and Tisza at only 34 percent.

According to their research, the ruling party also has a large advantage among the entire population: Fidesz 36 percent and Tisa 25 percent. However, it is clear that something is happening, and whether Orbán will fall in the next elections remains to be seen. Peter Magjar is a new political star, who this spring suddenly turned into the main competitor of the ruling Fidesz and the untouchable Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

He was also a member of Fidesz. It all started in February when then-Hungarian President Katalin Novak and former Justice Minister Judith Varga, the most prominent women in the ruling Fidesz party, resigned over the pardon of a convicted child abuser.

Then Péter Magjar, ex-husband of Judith Varga, suddenly appeared on the stage, who publicly accused Orbán and the team of those days of corruption.

The Hungarian attracted national attention because he is an insider and knows firsthand what is happening in the government, and he also published a video of a conversation with his ex-wife in which the two discussed corruption at the highest levels of government.

"Now is the time to say that it can't go on like this," the Hungarian said then, wondering if "it's normal for a few families to own half of the country."

The European elections held in June already saw a clear strengthening of Tisza, for which 30 percent of Hungarians voted. True, Orbán's Fidesz won 43 percent of the vote, but it was nowhere near a convincing victory, like the one in the parliamentary elections in April 2022, which was greeted with special joy in the Kremlin.

Viktor Orbán knows who poses a danger to him, so in a recent appearance in the European Parliament, he accused the Hungarian of criticizing the Hungarian government while he is on trial at home.

"Obviously, he took his mandate to hide behind European immunity," Orbán said.

Namely, in September, Peter Polt, the chief Hungarian prosecutor, asked the European Parliament to revoke Hungary's immunity from criminal prosecution, because of a mobile phone valued at 250 euros. In June, someone filmed a Hungarian man dancing with an unknown woman in a night club, and he then took the cameraman's mobile phone and allegedly threw it into the Danube.

That incident was enough for Orbán's judiciary to submit a request to the EP to revoke the immunity of the head of the Hungarian opposition. It won't happen, but it clearly shows that Viktor Orbán and his team are ready to do anything to retain power.