Dramatic warning from Sarajevo: If the dam on the Neretva bursts, it will cause a disaster

One of them is Academician Muriz Spahić, an expert in the field of hydrology and geography, founder of the BiH Association of Geographers and former Dean and Professor at the Faculty of Science and Mathematics of the UNSA, who answers for Večernji list the key questions that arise after the disaster that, according to the data so far, took away at least 18 lives and warns of critical points that could suffer the fate of Jablanica in the future.

He is particularly concerned about the upper basin of the Neretva River due to the large number of hydropower plants.

"All hydrotechnical works in that part are extremely threatening for the settlements in the Neretva valley, all the way to its confluence with the Adriatic Sea. Let's imagine for a moment the scenario that the upper basin of the Neretva river up to the dam of the hydroaccumulation "Ulog" with a height of 53, is released in a short period of time from for a few hours or one day, the average annual rainfall of over 1000 mm per square meter falls from the basin, whose dam is built in an unstable terrain intersected by faults. We don't know when it can happen. Similar problems can arise with the Gornji horizonti project in the Neretva basin, which is intended to transfer the tributary waters of the Neretva through a series of karst fields towards Trebišnjica," warns academician Spahić.

He points out that torrential floods are not new and that they were recorded in Bosnia and Herzegovina in Sarajevo in the Bistrik district below Trebević in the 19th century, even ten years ago, when they brought devastating consequences in Željezno polje and the roads and settlements were buried by torrential sediment.

Climate change favors disasters, but it is not the only cause.

"Usually citizens, when there are no current topics to talk about, start stories about climate change and weather disasters, believing that everything was created by them and that everything will end with their disappearance. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, as everywhere, storms with great material damage occurred, even with human victims. But today there are analyzes of climate change and we know that it manifests itself in a general increase in temperatures, a change in the duration of the climatic seasons in certain meteorological conditions that encourage rapid weather changes, especially precipitation and if scientific gatherings are held on the topic of adaptation to climate change, and we witness such weather disasters, then the conclusion follows that we are not adapted to them, and we are indeed called and invited", believes the esteemed professor and expert.

A criminal investigation is also being carried out on the ground, whether the quarry is one of the causes of the large number of victims.

"The torrential process, especially the one in the Neretva basin around the settlement of Jablanica, on the right side of the valley where the Neretva canyon begins, is characterized by extremely large falls of over 60 degrees. The presence of a quarry below which a deep valley in the karst continues is not the only culprit for such torrential processes, because the same happened in other places, such as Komadinov vrelo, a road resort located downstream from Jablanica. The infiltration of rainwater in the carbonate slopes is very small, due to the absence of soil and the density of the sinkhole. The problem, the profession claims, is overbuilding at the foot of the mountains, but also the obvious ignorance of the individuals who are entrusted with spatial planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Personally, I am very afraid of the modest knowledge of the majority of the population, especially those in power, about the functioning of natural systems, because they cannot be expected to take action to reduce the risk of natural disasters. And a lot can be done. First of all, awareness should be developed that everything done in the geographical environment can have negative consequences. Floods occur on longitudinal profiles that can be buried by waste that creates plugs from that garbage, so the swollen water accumulates, thereby increasing the pressure on those plugs, drilling them and increasing deep and lateral erosion, and the erosive material is carried to lower altitudes, creating torrential floods. They are coming quickly, creating catastrophic consequences for the population and settlements.

As a University Professor, I saw that there is a need for Regional and Spatial Planning experts, who would work, in addition to state and cantonal departments, also at the level of local communities (municipalities). I introduced a special course at the faculty to educate those experts, it turned out that this idea was completely justified, because some settlements would never have been built on their current locations. I have warned entity and cantonal governments and relevant ministries about many hydro-ecological problems, but with no response, while the experts we train are very difficult to find employment in the departments," explained the Professor from the Faculty of Science and Mathematics in Sarajevo.