The Balkan mess redux

The comment from albi calling Republika Srpska 'a dirty word' is extremely offensive, but of course it passed the B92 Sorosian censors. It is ok to slander anything Serbian, but even the hint of slander towards others is censored, correct B92?? As for albi, I have news for him/her - Republika Srpska exists, and will be independent, and will never again live with the same people that tried to exterminate them again and again. Deal with that reality.

I am glad to see tha Monty has finally pulled his head out of the sand and decided to treat Serbs fairly, and that Serbs have the same right to self determination as all other groups. When did this revelation come, Monty? Is it because you see Russia getting closer and closer to Serbia and this worries you?

"The only thing we need is to close the "authorities" that the "moderated" Govt of Tadic is financing and supporting; "

Ben,

But what about illegal Kosovo institutions? Mind that Kosovo is just a Serbian province ruled by the UN!

How can you say that Serbian institutions are illegal as Kosovo institutions themselves are illegal?

By the way Albanians ran parallel instituions in the 80s and 90s. Did you favor them to be shut down by Serbia then?

Check the fact: Kosovo is a Serbian province!

In Western Europe euroscepticism is growing by the day. You really think behaviour like this will help?

Most people in Western Europe don't want ANY new members the coming years. Let alone Bosnia, Albania or Kosovo.
(DISCLAIMER: Kosovo is not a state but a province)

"However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova."

-- Just to address this issue again because I know Albanians and their supporters love to spout this without actually thinking or looking up the numbers.

There seems to be this understanding among the ranks of Albanian nationalists that all three districts are 100% Albanian.

If you please:

a) Medvedja - Serbs: 68.86%; Albanians: 28.67 %

b) Bujanovac - Serbs: 34.14%; Albanians: 54.69%

c) Presevo - Serbs: 8.55%; Albanians: 89.1%

Albanians only constitute an absolute majority in Presevo. They are an minority in Medvedja and have only a slight plurality in Bujanovac.

So why some continue to push for the annexation of all three is beyond me. If they want all three, they'll need to exchange something they control, and preferably something more ethinically mixed. You want Presevo? That should be easy. You want Bujanovac? Swap it for Kosovsko Kamenica or Novo Brdo. You want Medvedja? Give up Klina or Gniljane.

"East Kosova" my rear end.

Ben. give up. Can't you see that you have lost? Nobody wants any more of their soldiers being sacrificed. I have always stated that the US doesn't have the stomach for any new wars and they will look for ways to get out.

Your masters will abandon you sooner or later. Must admit I didn't think it was going to be this soon.

Mike,

I think you are right. Well, as long as all sides agree, no problem.

See Slovakia.

But Serbs AND ALBANIANS must never recognize illegal Kosovo independence!

"In both Kosovo and Bosnia, we need to consider different solutions — ones which we may not like and which will have complications of their own, but which will be really... achievable. This is the only way the international community can bring its involvement in the Balkans to an end.

In Kosovo, this probably means some form of partition between the Albanians and the Serbs combined with joint recognition, pledges of full rights for minorities and a variety of sweeteners from the EU.

Bosnia is more complicated. There, a solution probably involves shaping a different relationship within Bosnia and permitting the Republika Srpska, the Serbian portion of the divided country, to hold a referendum on independence. This would have to include a lot of guarantees about future relationships, and be done as a complete package led and implemented by the international community."

The man finally speaks the truth .... for someone who used to mouth the standard US line against partition of Bosnian and Kosovo's borders when he was part of the US government, this really represents a complete about turn.

No real big deal though. Montgomery was merely stating the obvious -- de facto partitions already exist in Kosovo and Bosnia. And rather than continue to throw away good money after bad into a bottomless black hole forcing ethnic communities that hate the sight of one another to live together in an artificially imposed glue, a formal separation is the only sensible long-term solution. And it is long overdue.

albi,

Serbs and Croats may not leave Bosnia. But Kosovo may split of from Serbia?

Why Kosovo may split from Serbia but Serbs and Croats not from Bosnia?

Ossetia?
Abkhazie?
Kurdistan?
Nagorno Karabakh?
...
...

Serbia should never accept partion of North Kosovo for the rest of Kosovo (but probably will). The exchange is not a fair land exchange.

Serbia should only accept this if they got Srpska. BUT... the Bosnikas and Croats would be furious. Croats will want part of the Bosnian Federation and the Bosniaks will want Sandzak.

Don't we see where this is going! More headaches and possibly another war! I guess Mr. Montegomery hasn't looked that far ahead. Once you start there is no end in sight. What happens in 50 years when there is another demographic change. Albaninas will probably grow deeper into Serbia and Bosniaks will integrate back into Srpska. Do we redraw borders "again"?

People need to realize the best thing is to live all together and stop with the fighting over little pieces of square kilometers.

No "ethnicity" in the Balkans will ever be large enough in this world to be a "powerful" nation. There are three countries in the world that can do anything. Russia, China, and the USA. "Countries" in the Balkans need to cooperate together over real life things (health, trade, education). These countries should create their own "EU".

Whats the point of fighting over land? Is that really that important? Who cares!


Croats, Serbs, Bosniaks, Albanians, were all ethnically cleansed and all did ethnic cleansing. However when you ask one of these "ethnicites" about this... they only admit they were ethnically cleansed and didn't do the latter!

People from the Balkans need to change the way they think and grow up. They all need to look themselves in the mirror, because they all act the same and WILL always need each other like it or not!

Sir-

This is piece is quite disturbing. What in fact says, is that the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo is fait accompli, and it is fine by you. A very treacherous stand to take indeed.

Why are you not bombing Kosovo now- to allow Serbs to return? The fact is that Kosovo, has created a larger Albania. It is Europe's least regulated and most criminal land by all accounts (EU/UN reports all have pointed to this). Yet you cling to a mistaken Clinton position and point your sword as righteous. It is not righteous. It is soaked with blood and smacks against every international sovereign law ever passed in modern times. You should be ashamed of staking the position of 'forget about Kosovo' and move on. Why don't you sir forget about Kosovo or do the right thing and about face your position on the issue.

when you clean your dirty house -----than come back and give us serbs advice-------your time for molding other nations into what you think they should be is OVER.....

cccc

Well, this is how it starts, elton john. Billy Monty is a career, american politician. It's all about themselves, you see. He can spout propaganda for 20 years, not personally believe it, and shed it when it no longer serves his purpose. He sees that the wheel is turning and is positioning himself to be the Balkan envoy that the us congress is demanding from obama. This is a smart, opportunistic ploy on his part - he senses that the us is going to give up its Kosovo experiment and is applying for the job of jamitor to clean up the "Balkan Mess"

Adrian Gashi,

Negotiations are not over as there is still no deal. For a deal you need BOTH sides. It is about time Albanians accept that fact.

Serbia did not write off Kosovo in 1999. Remember 1244. Quite the opposite: Albanians in 1999 accepted the fact that Kosovo was part of YU/Serbia.

If you say YES in 1999 you should stick to it. The deal was: autonomy but not independence. Albananias agreed to this.

Why the West is breaking promises?

I am from the West, but I really can't understand our double standards!

First, it's good to see Montgomery here again. I understand his unexpected absence involved some unfortunate situation in Croatia. I'm glad to see he's ok, and hope to read (and disagree) with his posts on B92 again.

Second, it seems his time away has done him some good. Not only is he talking about the partitioning of Kosovo everyone knows is coming but no one wants to acknowledge, but he's also wise enough to realize that the same must be extended to Bosnia as well, where Serbs are no less eager to chart a path of self-determination as the Albanians of Kosovo.

But here comes the tricky part. If the witch doctors in Washington still insist on keeping both Bosnian and Kosvovan cadavers on indefinite life support, they better be prepared to engage in the following:

1. Prolonged occupation and civil administration of both regions to the point they become glorified protectorates in all but name

2. Various sets of agreements with Belgrade to implement (or interfere depending on one's point of view) policies for the Serbs of both regions

3. Decentralization to the point where 1974 Yugoslavia looks like a success story.

If not, bite the bullet and redraw the borders. I have enough confidence to believe that if an offer is made to Belgrade whereby they get northern Kosovo and RS in exchange for writing the rest of Kosovo off and signing on the dotted line, most Serbs would do it.

Adrian,

Point taken on the Kosovo municipalities. In honesty, I was typing up the comment and heading out the door.

Fine, so let's switch over to Strpce where there is a plurality of Serbs (66 - 33 Serb - Albanian)? I'd still throw in Novo Brdo (that can be the swap for Bujanovac or something). Regardless, proportionate swap for proportionate swap.

But all of this is just hypothetics online. It's not going to happen.

first of all:

if Montgomery presents the creation of the socalled uck as something that was not controllable, he´s simply deceiving you.

the socalled uck (actually just an army of chickenthieves ) was trained and financed by foreign services and that isn´t even doubted anymore. US-american and german help for albanian extremists was so badly needed that without them being trained and equipped by US- and german instructors the socalled uck would have been eliminated within 36 hours.

back to the article and comments:

hey Mike,
you wrote:

"I have enough confidence to believe that if an offer is made to Belgrade whereby they get northern Kosovo and RS in exchange for writing the rest of Kosovo off and signing on the dotted line, most Serbs would do it.
(Mike, 6 June 2009 17:56) "

you certainly do not speak for Serbia or the majority of Serbs here, so please keep those anti-serb speculations back.

there is no bargaining about serbian territory. fullstop.

it is all serbian soil. and no signature on any "dotted line" would be worth a dime, since every official who dared to sign something like that, would have to fear the consequences.

in regard to Kosovo, there will be no partition. it will stay serbian territory, just give the Albanians the time needed to cool down their heads and to realize that they can´t change international norms and laws.

and then you will see how these big-mouth-rambo´s will be talking about " I was never taking part in uck-terror-organisation"

the only interesting thing is, that a former US-official usually does not speak publicly about US-foreign-policy mistakes - I even doubt they are allowed to do that, to give their five cents about it.

this is no individual speaking, although one of our albanian friends would probably give his right arm away in order to secure this hope...

but the mere fact that a US-official mentions new approaches and partitions, is signaling that the US are losing ground in the international arena.

in my eyes that is VERY good.

as far as I am concerned, we Serbs mustn´t fall for cheap tricks.

it´s all ours and it was occupied by terrorists and brutal invasion.

some here should not forget that so easily.

I want to offer a Greek perspective on the former Ambassador's comments. First, I am glad to see that Mr. Montgomery has realized that after almost two-decades of blaming and punishing the Serbs for every bad thing that happened in the Balkans that the situation isn't so black and white. That's a good first step. The US should absolutely change its policy towards the Balkans and particularly Serbia; for far too long it has been the target of misinformation and hostility.

On the question of border changes however, I couldn't disagree more with both the Albanians and the Serbs that have posted. Border changes will have DISASTOROUS consequences for everyone involved and will lead to further instability and violence. Kosovo must and will remain within the borders of Serbia, just as Bosnia should remain a separated, yet single state. Border changes will lead certain groups (particularly the Albanians) to believe that violence will advance their cause which is something that is unwarranted, and I believe unwanted by all states in the Balkans.

Welcome back Montgomery, it's been a while...
This is the most sensible thing I have read from you yet, but why do these messages always come from ex-regime players?
If only the current bunch would start to act rationally...
Can you PLEASE has a word with Biden and Hillary to get with the program as well?

All in all, Serb bashing seems to be on the decline... that is good.

Albanian bashing however seems to be slightly increasing, just a whiff at the moment, but increasing.

Hang in there Serbia.. time is on your side.

US diplomats are known to suffer from "localitis" and 15 years in Belgrade apparently have affected Mr Montgomery severely.

In Bosnia the issue is simple: the results of the ethnic cleansing cannot stand. Republica Srpska is a dirty word, a dirty notion, must be dismantled for the shame to go away.

In relation to Kosovo, Belgrade must apologize to Albanians for past crimes, must stop all current interference, must cease and desist. That is the best recipe for peace. If a territorial exchange between Presevo and north of Kosovo is desirable for both sides, it must be considered at a different date, in full peace.

What about Serbs living in southern Metohija(known as modern-day north Albania)should they be independent?

No No and No. No partition and no swaps. The US is going down the gurgler. We just need it to get embroiled in war with Iran and further more embroiled in Pakistan. WIthout a powerful patron the K-ALbs have nothing. The tide is changing in the Serbs' favour. We will prevail... and a change n Belgrade also. Sit tight!

Kosova's constitution gives the local authorities a large autonomy.

The only thing we need is to close the "authorities" that the "moderated" Govt of Tadic is financing and supporting; the one that killed the Romanian UNMIK policeman, the same one that set on fire UNMIK vehicles, the one that smuggle goods, the one that protest when their neighbour wants’ to rebuild his house that they destroyed to him.

If the international community is the alcoholic that doesn't want to recognise what the "moderated" govt of Tadic is doing the Kosova's authorities will be put on the wall to act and shown that they are de facto sovereign ovt of Kosova n entire her territory.

As always Albanians need to be pushed to extreme so they wake up and start acting- but they will act, they will have to act. The Albanian policy is always based on inertia that’s why we pay the higher price. We have to adopt in our minds the policy of pre-event.

Peggy,

You must not get your hopes up after reading the opinion of ONE man, who does not represent the US gov't and is not a part of that gov't.

However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova.

I'm not sure that you and your countrymen will be happy with the result!

At least Gojko's post made sense.

Mr. Montgomery has some good points, the solutions for Kosovo's and Bosnia's problems need to be creative, and the Western countries hasn't got a clue of anything that happens in the Balkans and how to solve the problems. However furture seperations is not the answer, where will it all end.

The answer for Bosnia doesn't need to be complicated. Srpska can never become independend or a part of Serbia, however it also need to be left alone no more powers should go to Sarajevo.
For Kosovo it's clear there need to be more talks between Belgrade and Pristina on issues that needs to be resolved regardles Kosovo's status. Free movement of people and goods between Serbia and Kosovo for example, so that in the end the end for the Serbs living there it won't matter much wheter Kosovo is an independend country or not, as they have all the rights Albanians have, but can travel freely to Serbia also.

Denis,

But everything you say is also true for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Then why the US is not supporting their independence?
Double standards perhaps?

"know of what I speak: For more than 15 years, I was one of these pounders. I finally came to understand that the historical experiences in this region have implanted a mind-set very different from our own. We keep expecting the people in the Balkans to think and react as we do: It is not going to happen. "

- maybe the US would not react according to dictate by another country either - have you not considered this key point mongomery? Taste your own medicine and I guess youd not think the same way nor wasted wasted wasted time money and years in pounding your false diktat!!!

Odd to think you forgot to mention Croatia where lets not forget the US generals were effective in a balkan double standard too when they organised croatian army who committed mass murder of elderly Serbs left in Krajina and the expulsion of the rest of Serbian population via operation storm!!!

It took you 15 years to figure this out:

I know of what I speak: For more than 15 years, I was one of these pounders. I finally came to understand that the historical experiences in this region have implanted a mind-set very different from our own. We keep expecting the people in the Balkans to think and react as we do: It is not going to happen.

Goes to the credibility of pretty much everything you've ever said. This should have been instantly apparent to anyone with a modicum of objectivity.

However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova.

I'm not sure that you and your countrymen will be happy with the result!
(Michael John, 6 June 2009 16:35)

Now who is jumping the gun?

What on earth makes you think you can steal any more of Serbian land? Who exactly has told you you can go ahead and do that? You see, only if some great power has told you that you can do that can you hope for such a thing, because without this support you are and have nothing. Do you honestly believe that you have any power or say so in the Balkans?

I was not getting excited but I am reading between the lines. Sometimes statements are put out there for a reason no matter how ridiculous they may seem to some. Getting the feel of the population is what this could be about. You never know.

You for got Vojvodina the Hungarian's would like the northern part and if they get it also south eastern Slovakia. You are opening up more and more troubles no one will be able to fix. Which will only be solved by armed struggles it could drag all of Europe in to a even bigger bloody mess then the Americans have made. With the bigger European country's wanting and supporting different outcomes.

Alex> "Border changes will have DISASTOROUS consequences for everyone"

Can't agree more with you. That is the whole point. What do you do when boreders turn out to be so unacceptable to the people concerned, that no passage of time, no promises for EU integration help makong people on the ground to accept them! The K-Albanians NEVER accepted to be part of Serbia, the BiH Serbs would never agree to be part of a country with a non-Serb majority etc.

Mike, why didn't you give the population percentages also for the areas that you want to swap. Because, it seems that you want to exchange one region with Albanian majority with another with overwhelming Albanian majority. Gjilan - 92% Alb, 8% Srb; Klina - 96% Alb, 0.17% Srb; Kamenica - 82% Alb, 16% Srb; Novoberda - 61% Alb, 37% Srb (only 1400 Serbs in Novoberda).

And Serbs don't make up 100% in North Kosova either. Not in the three munis (Zvecan, Zubin Potok, or Leposavic) and much less in Mitrovica. As for control, you don't control N Kosova, KFOR does. Otherwise N Kosova would've already been part of Serbia.

Montgomery speaks only for himself. The partition issue was hinted by Ischinger during the status talks, but the Serb delegation reacted negatively against it. Now that the negotiations are over, it's too late.

No partition of Kosova was part of Ahtisaari package, that Albanians agreed with the West. And the West, is in fact the real power in Kosova since 1999, when they defeated Serbia militarily. Serbia signed Kosova off to the West in 1999, in order to end the war. The West agreed to the independence of Kosova in 2008, after Albanians accepted the Ahtisaari package. Albanians also made concessions as part of the Ahtisaari pckg: No union with Albania, over representation of Serbs in government and parliament, Serb veto in parliament over certain topics, Serb as official language, and perpetuation of extensive rights and properties given to the Serb church by Milosevic. So if the partition is brought back into the table, every thing else is out of the window, and Kosova might as well join Albania.

As things stand, the West does not want partition categorically, for their own reasons. The only way you can get any part of N Kosova, is if you deal directly with Albanians - I've said this before. All you have to do is make the deal fair and show respect. Otherwise we believe the status quo is beautiful, and the future even more so.

I hope to see some of the ideas from this article back in the US foreign policy. However, I would like to make a few remarks.

On Bosnia:
I would prefer to start with a split of the Federation. De facto it is split anyway and the fact that it is not split de jure causes a lot of inefficiencies. The Federation functions as a symbol of Bosnia as a unitary state. Splitting it would end that dream. This might lead to more realistic relations between the three groups. Even the mere fact that the US or any Western country advocates a splitup of the Federation would improve the political climate. And let's be honest: the federation was an opportunistic war alliance. Keeping it after the war was over was a mistake.

I think such a three-entity Bosnia should be given a chance for some years before there is a decision about a referendum.

Some Muslim activists like to label the Serb Republic as a "product of ethnic cleansing". What they really mean to say is that all Serbs are ethnic cleansers and as such inferior people who don't deserve political rights. I am glad to see that William Montgomery doesn't buy this argument.

On Kosovo:

Adrian Gashi mentions that Ischinger hinted at partition and that Serbia refused. I think this ignores the dynamics of the negotiations. Serbia knew that the Albanians would oppose partition and that some Western countries would support them. If Serbia accepted the principle of partition the only effect would be that it would be used against them by saying that they had implicitly accepted Kosovo's independence by accepting the idea of partition. Serbia's idea of negotiation was that the Albanians would do some consessions including partition to be accepted by Serbia as an independent state. Ahtisaari's proposal undermined this by giving Kosovo indepedence with weak minority rights that very probably will lead in the end to the departure of most of the remaining Serbs.

The problem with Ahtisaari's proposal is that he refuses to address issues like discrimination, occupied properties and freedom of movement. Very probably he doesn't even know about those issues. It is my impression that Ahtisaari is a lazy man who rests on his merits as the negotiator who brought peace to Namibia. He tried to use the same formula for Kosovo without even bothering to consider that the situation might be different.

That partition was never really discussed is because the West and specially the US opposed it. No partition was one of the "principles" of the Contact Group and any local politician who advocated it could expect a dress down from Western politicians. Ahtisaari accepted those "principles" as point of departure for his "negotiations".

It will a tough change for the US to make if it wants to accept the possiblity of partition of Kosovo. It might start with stopping the present salami policy in Kosovo where the Kosovo government is given steadily more power over Kosovo's Serbs (see for example Brdjani and increasing responsibilities of the border posts). Besides that it should formally declare that it no longer opposes border changes. Even so it will be difficult to start negotiations before the ICJ verdict.

My guess of the most probable outcome: North Mitrovica and Strpce to Serbia and Presevo and part of Bujanovac to Kosovo. Serbia becomes a role in much more that concerns the Kosovo Serbs and the Serb monuments in Kosovo. Given that many Serb children will continue their studies in Serbia for example it is ridiculous that the Serb government has no say on the education of the Kosovo Serbs.

folks,

don't bother with this guy.

If this move happens, Vojvodina, Sandzak, Presevo Valley and a large chunk of eastern Serbia will go to Bulgaria and Romania. As for Kosovo, Leposavic and Zupin Potok could be the exchange for Presevo Valley. Forget Mitrovica, forget Zvecan. Albs have the green light to take over from us!

After reading all the comments below I can only say, "Bring back Tito"

it´s all ours and it was occupied by terrorists and brutal invasion.

(Jovan, 7 June 2009 19:50)

"Brutal invasion and terrorists", hmm? 10,000 dead albanians, over 1,500 missing (consider them dead), 900,000 cleaned out in 99.... I wonder who were the terrorists?

In anycase, I believe that partion is the most realistic solution and that there will be no "cool off" for albanians. They are already cooled off, since the independence, statistically K-Alb are one of the happiest people in the Balkans.

The reality is this.....

The new generation of K-Alb are growing up in an independent state reality/mentality, they have no sense of belonging or affiliated with Serbia or ex-Yugo in any way, shape or form, they will not speak any serbian as their parents did.

They will not have any nostalgia for ex-Yugo/Serbian goods, as they will not even be able to read the labels.

8 years ago only 10,000 Kosovars vacationed in Albania, this year there will be 600,000 (550,000 last year). Interaction in every level of life (political, economic, cultural etc) is only increasing. Very soon one can travel from Prishtina to Tirana and/or Albanian ports in 3 hours.

The leverage Serbia has on Kosovo today, especially in trade of goods, will not be there forever, as the southern and western routes become more effective.

So I am not really sure where do you see K-Albanians turning to Serbia for anything.

Kosovo might not be able to participate in FIFA world cups, or other similar events, due to its UN status but who cares? We can always participate indirectly through Albania as we already do. This will consolidate us even further.

So yes, Montgomery is right, take Mitrovica and let it be it.

The Bosnian question could be resolved via the Lebanese system, whereby after the collection of an accurate census, the government posts are distributed as per ethnic majority, eg President to one group, Prime Minister to next biggest group etc.. The difficulties in Lebanon have been caused by the migrations of the Maronite Christian community out of Lebanon. In the last accurate census in the begginning of the 1970's they were the largest group, hence they were given the presidency, but since the refusal of the Maronite community to hold another census (which would result in the loss of the presidency) the shifting demographics of Lebanon have resulted in civil strife. The census must be mandated in the constitution and conducted by an independent body and held before the election, posts are then assigned, then the elections are held. It is just a suggestion, but it could hep break the deadlock.

Kosova's constitution gives the local authorities a large autonomy.

The only thing we need is to close the "authorities" that the "moderated" Govt of Tadic is financing and supporting; the one that killed the Romanian UNMIK policeman, the same one that set on fire UNMIK vehicles, the one that smuggle goods, the one that protest when their neighbour wants’ to rebuild his house that they destroyed to him.

If the international community is the alcoholic that doesn't want to recognise what the "moderated" govt of Tadic is doing the Kosova's authorities will be put on the wall to act and shown that they are de facto sovereign ovt of Kosova n entire her territory.

As always Albanians need to be pushed to extreme so they wake up and start acting- but they will act, they will have to act. The Albanian policy is always based on inertia that’s why we pay the higher price. We have to adopt in our minds the policy of pre-event.

US diplomats are known to suffer from "localitis" and 15 years in Belgrade apparently have affected Mr Montgomery severely.

In Bosnia the issue is simple: the results of the ethnic cleansing cannot stand. Republica Srpska is a dirty word, a dirty notion, must be dismantled for the shame to go away.

In relation to Kosovo, Belgrade must apologize to Albanians for past crimes, must stop all current interference, must cease and desist. That is the best recipe for peace. If a territorial exchange between Presevo and north of Kosovo is desirable for both sides, it must be considered at a different date, in full peace.

Peggy,

You must not get your hopes up after reading the opinion of ONE man, who does not represent the US gov't and is not a part of that gov't.

However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova.

I'm not sure that you and your countrymen will be happy with the result!

Mike, why didn't you give the population percentages also for the areas that you want to swap. Because, it seems that you want to exchange one region with Albanian majority with another with overwhelming Albanian majority. Gjilan - 92% Alb, 8% Srb; Klina - 96% Alb, 0.17% Srb; Kamenica - 82% Alb, 16% Srb; Novoberda - 61% Alb, 37% Srb (only 1400 Serbs in Novoberda).

And Serbs don't make up 100% in North Kosova either. Not in the three munis (Zvecan, Zubin Potok, or Leposavic) and much less in Mitrovica. As for control, you don't control N Kosova, KFOR does. Otherwise N Kosova would've already been part of Serbia.

Montgomery speaks only for himself. The partition issue was hinted by Ischinger during the status talks, but the Serb delegation reacted negatively against it. Now that the negotiations are over, it's too late.

No partition of Kosova was part of Ahtisaari package, that Albanians agreed with the West. And the West, is in fact the real power in Kosova since 1999, when they defeated Serbia militarily. Serbia signed Kosova off to the West in 1999, in order to end the war. The West agreed to the independence of Kosova in 2008, after Albanians accepted the Ahtisaari package. Albanians also made concessions as part of the Ahtisaari pckg: No union with Albania, over representation of Serbs in government and parliament, Serb veto in parliament over certain topics, Serb as official language, and perpetuation of extensive rights and properties given to the Serb church by Milosevic. So if the partition is brought back into the table, every thing else is out of the window, and Kosova might as well join Albania.

As things stand, the West does not want partition categorically, for their own reasons. The only way you can get any part of N Kosova, is if you deal directly with Albanians - I've said this before. All you have to do is make the deal fair and show respect. Otherwise we believe the status quo is beautiful, and the future even more so.

folks,

don't bother with this guy.

If this move happens, Vojvodina, Sandzak, Presevo Valley and a large chunk of eastern Serbia will go to Bulgaria and Romania. As for Kosovo, Leposavic and Zupin Potok could be the exchange for Presevo Valley. Forget Mitrovica, forget Zvecan. Albs have the green light to take over from us!

it´s all ours and it was occupied by terrorists and brutal invasion.

(Jovan, 7 June 2009 19:50)

"Brutal invasion and terrorists", hmm? 10,000 dead albanians, over 1,500 missing (consider them dead), 900,000 cleaned out in 99.... I wonder who were the terrorists?

In anycase, I believe that partion is the most realistic solution and that there will be no "cool off" for albanians. They are already cooled off, since the independence, statistically K-Alb are one of the happiest people in the Balkans.

The reality is this.....

The new generation of K-Alb are growing up in an independent state reality/mentality, they have no sense of belonging or affiliated with Serbia or ex-Yugo in any way, shape or form, they will not speak any serbian as their parents did.

They will not have any nostalgia for ex-Yugo/Serbian goods, as they will not even be able to read the labels.

8 years ago only 10,000 Kosovars vacationed in Albania, this year there will be 600,000 (550,000 last year). Interaction in every level of life (political, economic, cultural etc) is only increasing. Very soon one can travel from Prishtina to Tirana and/or Albanian ports in 3 hours.

The leverage Serbia has on Kosovo today, especially in trade of goods, will not be there forever, as the southern and western routes become more effective.

So I am not really sure where do you see K-Albanians turning to Serbia for anything.

Kosovo might not be able to participate in FIFA world cups, or other similar events, due to its UN status but who cares? We can always participate indirectly through Albania as we already do. This will consolidate us even further.

So yes, Montgomery is right, take Mitrovica and let it be it.

Ben. give up. Can't you see that you have lost? Nobody wants any more of their soldiers being sacrificed. I have always stated that the US doesn't have the stomach for any new wars and they will look for ways to get out.

Your masters will abandon you sooner or later. Must admit I didn't think it was going to be this soon.

"The only thing we need is to close the "authorities" that the "moderated" Govt of Tadic is financing and supporting; "

Ben,

But what about illegal Kosovo institutions? Mind that Kosovo is just a Serbian province ruled by the UN!

How can you say that Serbian institutions are illegal as Kosovo institutions themselves are illegal?

By the way Albanians ran parallel instituions in the 80s and 90s. Did you favor them to be shut down by Serbia then?

Check the fact: Kosovo is a Serbian province!

In Western Europe euroscepticism is growing by the day. You really think behaviour like this will help?

Most people in Western Europe don't want ANY new members the coming years. Let alone Bosnia, Albania or Kosovo.
(DISCLAIMER: Kosovo is not a state but a province)

The comment from albi calling Republika Srpska 'a dirty word' is extremely offensive, but of course it passed the B92 Sorosian censors. It is ok to slander anything Serbian, but even the hint of slander towards others is censored, correct B92?? As for albi, I have news for him/her - Republika Srpska exists, and will be independent, and will never again live with the same people that tried to exterminate them again and again. Deal with that reality.

I am glad to see tha Monty has finally pulled his head out of the sand and decided to treat Serbs fairly, and that Serbs have the same right to self determination as all other groups. When did this revelation come, Monty? Is it because you see Russia getting closer and closer to Serbia and this worries you?

You for got Vojvodina the Hungarian's would like the northern part and if they get it also south eastern Slovakia. You are opening up more and more troubles no one will be able to fix. Which will only be solved by armed struggles it could drag all of Europe in to a even bigger bloody mess then the Americans have made. With the bigger European country's wanting and supporting different outcomes.

albi,

Serbs and Croats may not leave Bosnia. But Kosovo may split of from Serbia?

Why Kosovo may split from Serbia but Serbs and Croats not from Bosnia?

Ossetia?
Abkhazie?
Kurdistan?
Nagorno Karabakh?
...
...

"In both Kosovo and Bosnia, we need to consider different solutions — ones which we may not like and which will have complications of their own, but which will be really... achievable. This is the only way the international community can bring its involvement in the Balkans to an end.

In Kosovo, this probably means some form of partition between the Albanians and the Serbs combined with joint recognition, pledges of full rights for minorities and a variety of sweeteners from the EU.

Bosnia is more complicated. There, a solution probably involves shaping a different relationship within Bosnia and permitting the Republika Srpska, the Serbian portion of the divided country, to hold a referendum on independence. This would have to include a lot of guarantees about future relationships, and be done as a complete package led and implemented by the international community."

The man finally speaks the truth .... for someone who used to mouth the standard US line against partition of Bosnian and Kosovo's borders when he was part of the US government, this really represents a complete about turn.

No real big deal though. Montgomery was merely stating the obvious -- de facto partitions already exist in Kosovo and Bosnia. And rather than continue to throw away good money after bad into a bottomless black hole forcing ethnic communities that hate the sight of one another to live together in an artificially imposed glue, a formal separation is the only sensible long-term solution. And it is long overdue.

At least Gojko's post made sense.

Mr. Montgomery has some good points, the solutions for Kosovo's and Bosnia's problems need to be creative, and the Western countries hasn't got a clue of anything that happens in the Balkans and how to solve the problems. However furture seperations is not the answer, where will it all end.

The answer for Bosnia doesn't need to be complicated. Srpska can never become independend or a part of Serbia, however it also need to be left alone no more powers should go to Sarajevo.
For Kosovo it's clear there need to be more talks between Belgrade and Pristina on issues that needs to be resolved regardles Kosovo's status. Free movement of people and goods between Serbia and Kosovo for example, so that in the end the end for the Serbs living there it won't matter much wheter Kosovo is an independend country or not, as they have all the rights Albanians have, but can travel freely to Serbia also.

first of all:

if Montgomery presents the creation of the socalled uck as something that was not controllable, he´s simply deceiving you.

the socalled uck (actually just an army of chickenthieves ) was trained and financed by foreign services and that isn´t even doubted anymore. US-american and german help for albanian extremists was so badly needed that without them being trained and equipped by US- and german instructors the socalled uck would have been eliminated within 36 hours.

back to the article and comments:

hey Mike,
you wrote:

"I have enough confidence to believe that if an offer is made to Belgrade whereby they get northern Kosovo and RS in exchange for writing the rest of Kosovo off and signing on the dotted line, most Serbs would do it.
(Mike, 6 June 2009 17:56) "

you certainly do not speak for Serbia or the majority of Serbs here, so please keep those anti-serb speculations back.

there is no bargaining about serbian territory. fullstop.

it is all serbian soil. and no signature on any "dotted line" would be worth a dime, since every official who dared to sign something like that, would have to fear the consequences.

in regard to Kosovo, there will be no partition. it will stay serbian territory, just give the Albanians the time needed to cool down their heads and to realize that they can´t change international norms and laws.

and then you will see how these big-mouth-rambo´s will be talking about " I was never taking part in uck-terror-organisation"

the only interesting thing is, that a former US-official usually does not speak publicly about US-foreign-policy mistakes - I even doubt they are allowed to do that, to give their five cents about it.

this is no individual speaking, although one of our albanian friends would probably give his right arm away in order to secure this hope...

but the mere fact that a US-official mentions new approaches and partitions, is signaling that the US are losing ground in the international arena.

in my eyes that is VERY good.

as far as I am concerned, we Serbs mustn´t fall for cheap tricks.

it´s all ours and it was occupied by terrorists and brutal invasion.

some here should not forget that so easily.

After reading all the comments below I can only say, "Bring back Tito"

when you clean your dirty house -----than come back and give us serbs advice-------your time for molding other nations into what you think they should be is OVER.....

cccc

Mike,

I think you are right. Well, as long as all sides agree, no problem.

See Slovakia.

But Serbs AND ALBANIANS must never recognize illegal Kosovo independence!

What about Serbs living in southern Metohija(known as modern-day north Albania)should they be independent?

Serbia should never accept partion of North Kosovo for the rest of Kosovo (but probably will). The exchange is not a fair land exchange.

Serbia should only accept this if they got Srpska. BUT... the Bosnikas and Croats would be furious. Croats will want part of the Bosnian Federation and the Bosniaks will want Sandzak.

Don't we see where this is going! More headaches and possibly another war! I guess Mr. Montegomery hasn't looked that far ahead. Once you start there is no end in sight. What happens in 50 years when there is another demographic change. Albaninas will probably grow deeper into Serbia and Bosniaks will integrate back into Srpska. Do we redraw borders "again"?

People need to realize the best thing is to live all together and stop with the fighting over little pieces of square kilometers.

No "ethnicity" in the Balkans will ever be large enough in this world to be a "powerful" nation. There are three countries in the world that can do anything. Russia, China, and the USA. "Countries" in the Balkans need to cooperate together over real life things (health, trade, education). These countries should create their own "EU".

Whats the point of fighting over land? Is that really that important? Who cares!


Croats, Serbs, Bosniaks, Albanians, were all ethnically cleansed and all did ethnic cleansing. However when you ask one of these "ethnicites" about this... they only admit they were ethnically cleansed and didn't do the latter!

People from the Balkans need to change the way they think and grow up. They all need to look themselves in the mirror, because they all act the same and WILL always need each other like it or not!

First, it's good to see Montgomery here again. I understand his unexpected absence involved some unfortunate situation in Croatia. I'm glad to see he's ok, and hope to read (and disagree) with his posts on B92 again.

Second, it seems his time away has done him some good. Not only is he talking about the partitioning of Kosovo everyone knows is coming but no one wants to acknowledge, but he's also wise enough to realize that the same must be extended to Bosnia as well, where Serbs are no less eager to chart a path of self-determination as the Albanians of Kosovo.

But here comes the tricky part. If the witch doctors in Washington still insist on keeping both Bosnian and Kosvovan cadavers on indefinite life support, they better be prepared to engage in the following:

1. Prolonged occupation and civil administration of both regions to the point they become glorified protectorates in all but name

2. Various sets of agreements with Belgrade to implement (or interfere depending on one's point of view) policies for the Serbs of both regions

3. Decentralization to the point where 1974 Yugoslavia looks like a success story.

If not, bite the bullet and redraw the borders. I have enough confidence to believe that if an offer is made to Belgrade whereby they get northern Kosovo and RS in exchange for writing the rest of Kosovo off and signing on the dotted line, most Serbs would do it.

"However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova."

-- Just to address this issue again because I know Albanians and their supporters love to spout this without actually thinking or looking up the numbers.

There seems to be this understanding among the ranks of Albanian nationalists that all three districts are 100% Albanian.

If you please:

a) Medvedja - Serbs: 68.86%; Albanians: 28.67 %

b) Bujanovac - Serbs: 34.14%; Albanians: 54.69%

c) Presevo - Serbs: 8.55%; Albanians: 89.1%

Albanians only constitute an absolute majority in Presevo. They are an minority in Medvedja and have only a slight plurality in Bujanovac.

So why some continue to push for the annexation of all three is beyond me. If they want all three, they'll need to exchange something they control, and preferably something more ethinically mixed. You want Presevo? That should be easy. You want Bujanovac? Swap it for Kosovsko Kamenica or Novo Brdo. You want Medvedja? Give up Klina or Gniljane.

"East Kosova" my rear end.

Sir-

This is piece is quite disturbing. What in fact says, is that the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo is fait accompli, and it is fine by you. A very treacherous stand to take indeed.

Why are you not bombing Kosovo now- to allow Serbs to return? The fact is that Kosovo, has created a larger Albania. It is Europe's least regulated and most criminal land by all accounts (EU/UN reports all have pointed to this). Yet you cling to a mistaken Clinton position and point your sword as righteous. It is not righteous. It is soaked with blood and smacks against every international sovereign law ever passed in modern times. You should be ashamed of staking the position of 'forget about Kosovo' and move on. Why don't you sir forget about Kosovo or do the right thing and about face your position on the issue.

No No and No. No partition and no swaps. The US is going down the gurgler. We just need it to get embroiled in war with Iran and further more embroiled in Pakistan. WIthout a powerful patron the K-ALbs have nothing. The tide is changing in the Serbs' favour. We will prevail... and a change n Belgrade also. Sit tight!

I want to offer a Greek perspective on the former Ambassador's comments. First, I am glad to see that Mr. Montgomery has realized that after almost two-decades of blaming and punishing the Serbs for every bad thing that happened in the Balkans that the situation isn't so black and white. That's a good first step. The US should absolutely change its policy towards the Balkans and particularly Serbia; for far too long it has been the target of misinformation and hostility.

On the question of border changes however, I couldn't disagree more with both the Albanians and the Serbs that have posted. Border changes will have DISASTOROUS consequences for everyone involved and will lead to further instability and violence. Kosovo must and will remain within the borders of Serbia, just as Bosnia should remain a separated, yet single state. Border changes will lead certain groups (particularly the Albanians) to believe that violence will advance their cause which is something that is unwarranted, and I believe unwanted by all states in the Balkans.

"know of what I speak: For more than 15 years, I was one of these pounders. I finally came to understand that the historical experiences in this region have implanted a mind-set very different from our own. We keep expecting the people in the Balkans to think and react as we do: It is not going to happen. "

- maybe the US would not react according to dictate by another country either - have you not considered this key point mongomery? Taste your own medicine and I guess youd not think the same way nor wasted wasted wasted time money and years in pounding your false diktat!!!

Odd to think you forgot to mention Croatia where lets not forget the US generals were effective in a balkan double standard too when they organised croatian army who committed mass murder of elderly Serbs left in Krajina and the expulsion of the rest of Serbian population via operation storm!!!

I hope to see some of the ideas from this article back in the US foreign policy. However, I would like to make a few remarks.

On Bosnia:
I would prefer to start with a split of the Federation. De facto it is split anyway and the fact that it is not split de jure causes a lot of inefficiencies. The Federation functions as a symbol of Bosnia as a unitary state. Splitting it would end that dream. This might lead to more realistic relations between the three groups. Even the mere fact that the US or any Western country advocates a splitup of the Federation would improve the political climate. And let's be honest: the federation was an opportunistic war alliance. Keeping it after the war was over was a mistake.

I think such a three-entity Bosnia should be given a chance for some years before there is a decision about a referendum.

Some Muslim activists like to label the Serb Republic as a "product of ethnic cleansing". What they really mean to say is that all Serbs are ethnic cleansers and as such inferior people who don't deserve political rights. I am glad to see that William Montgomery doesn't buy this argument.

On Kosovo:

Adrian Gashi mentions that Ischinger hinted at partition and that Serbia refused. I think this ignores the dynamics of the negotiations. Serbia knew that the Albanians would oppose partition and that some Western countries would support them. If Serbia accepted the principle of partition the only effect would be that it would be used against them by saying that they had implicitly accepted Kosovo's independence by accepting the idea of partition. Serbia's idea of negotiation was that the Albanians would do some consessions including partition to be accepted by Serbia as an independent state. Ahtisaari's proposal undermined this by giving Kosovo indepedence with weak minority rights that very probably will lead in the end to the departure of most of the remaining Serbs.

The problem with Ahtisaari's proposal is that he refuses to address issues like discrimination, occupied properties and freedom of movement. Very probably he doesn't even know about those issues. It is my impression that Ahtisaari is a lazy man who rests on his merits as the negotiator who brought peace to Namibia. He tried to use the same formula for Kosovo without even bothering to consider that the situation might be different.

That partition was never really discussed is because the West and specially the US opposed it. No partition was one of the "principles" of the Contact Group and any local politician who advocated it could expect a dress down from Western politicians. Ahtisaari accepted those "principles" as point of departure for his "negotiations".

It will a tough change for the US to make if it wants to accept the possiblity of partition of Kosovo. It might start with stopping the present salami policy in Kosovo where the Kosovo government is given steadily more power over Kosovo's Serbs (see for example Brdjani and increasing responsibilities of the border posts). Besides that it should formally declare that it no longer opposes border changes. Even so it will be difficult to start negotiations before the ICJ verdict.

My guess of the most probable outcome: North Mitrovica and Strpce to Serbia and Presevo and part of Bujanovac to Kosovo. Serbia becomes a role in much more that concerns the Kosovo Serbs and the Serb monuments in Kosovo. Given that many Serb children will continue their studies in Serbia for example it is ridiculous that the Serb government has no say on the education of the Kosovo Serbs.

Adrian,

Point taken on the Kosovo municipalities. In honesty, I was typing up the comment and heading out the door.

Fine, so let's switch over to Strpce where there is a plurality of Serbs (66 - 33 Serb - Albanian)? I'd still throw in Novo Brdo (that can be the swap for Bujanovac or something). Regardless, proportionate swap for proportionate swap.

But all of this is just hypothetics online. It's not going to happen.

Denis,

But everything you say is also true for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Then why the US is not supporting their independence?
Double standards perhaps?

Alex> "Border changes will have DISASTOROUS consequences for everyone"

Can't agree more with you. That is the whole point. What do you do when boreders turn out to be so unacceptable to the people concerned, that no passage of time, no promises for EU integration help makong people on the ground to accept them! The K-Albanians NEVER accepted to be part of Serbia, the BiH Serbs would never agree to be part of a country with a non-Serb majority etc.

Adrian Gashi,

Negotiations are not over as there is still no deal. For a deal you need BOTH sides. It is about time Albanians accept that fact.

Serbia did not write off Kosovo in 1999. Remember 1244. Quite the opposite: Albanians in 1999 accepted the fact that Kosovo was part of YU/Serbia.

If you say YES in 1999 you should stick to it. The deal was: autonomy but not independence. Albananias agreed to this.

Why the West is breaking promises?

I am from the West, but I really can't understand our double standards!

Welcome back Montgomery, it's been a while...
This is the most sensible thing I have read from you yet, but why do these messages always come from ex-regime players?
If only the current bunch would start to act rationally...
Can you PLEASE has a word with Biden and Hillary to get with the program as well?

All in all, Serb bashing seems to be on the decline... that is good.

Albanian bashing however seems to be slightly increasing, just a whiff at the moment, but increasing.

Hang in there Serbia.. time is on your side.

However, be sure to understand that the Presheva valley, including Bujanovac and Medvedgjia, all now part of South Serbia, will go to Kosova.

I'm not sure that you and your countrymen will be happy with the result!
(Michael John, 6 June 2009 16:35)

Now who is jumping the gun?

What on earth makes you think you can steal any more of Serbian land? Who exactly has told you you can go ahead and do that? You see, only if some great power has told you that you can do that can you hope for such a thing, because without this support you are and have nothing. Do you honestly believe that you have any power or say so in the Balkans?

I was not getting excited but I am reading between the lines. Sometimes statements are put out there for a reason no matter how ridiculous they may seem to some. Getting the feel of the population is what this could be about. You never know.

Well, this is how it starts, elton john. Billy Monty is a career, american politician. It's all about themselves, you see. He can spout propaganda for 20 years, not personally believe it, and shed it when it no longer serves his purpose. He sees that the wheel is turning and is positioning himself to be the Balkan envoy that the us congress is demanding from obama. This is a smart, opportunistic ploy on his part - he senses that the us is going to give up its Kosovo experiment and is applying for the job of jamitor to clean up the "Balkan Mess"

It took you 15 years to figure this out:

I know of what I speak: For more than 15 years, I was one of these pounders. I finally came to understand that the historical experiences in this region have implanted a mind-set very different from our own. We keep expecting the people in the Balkans to think and react as we do: It is not going to happen.

Goes to the credibility of pretty much everything you've ever said. This should have been instantly apparent to anyone with a modicum of objectivity.

The Bosnian question could be resolved via the Lebanese system, whereby after the collection of an accurate census, the government posts are distributed as per ethnic majority, eg President to one group, Prime Minister to next biggest group etc.. The difficulties in Lebanon have been caused by the migrations of the Maronite Christian community out of Lebanon. In the last accurate census in the begginning of the 1970's they were the largest group, hence they were given the presidency, but since the refusal of the Maronite community to hold another census (which would result in the loss of the presidency) the shifting demographics of Lebanon have resulted in civil strife. The census must be mandated in the constitution and conducted by an independent body and held before the election, posts are then assigned, then the elections are held. It is just a suggestion, but it could hep break the deadlock.