A role model for the Bosnian Serbs

The best laid plans of men and mice Dodik Srpska entity is heading for a big fall. It is a fasad without Serbia propping it up it would have collapsed and disappeared long ago in to history militarily and economically. It is not Bosnia hanging on to barely survival mode but fictitious made up Srpska based on murder and ethnic cleansing. http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1363872/bosnian_serb_entity_reportedly_in_deep_recession/ http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/56189

First, to Lenard.
Your first link is not working so I don't know what it is. Your second link leads to the article written by Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis and published in "American Chronicle".
It's full of "American views" that I'm not subscribed to.
In conclusion the whole problem in former Yugoslavia was created by "the attitudes and the stance of today´s Serbs" characterised by "racism, racial and religious hatred, intolerance, historical rancor, discriminatory prejudices against other nations" etc.
In his view today's Serbs are "Anti-Albanian, Anti-Bosnian, Anti-Croatian, Anti-Hungarian, Anti-Kosovar, Anti-Macedonian, Anti-Italian, Anti-Turkish, Anti-Christian (Catholic), and Anti-Islamic"
In his view, all bed things that happened to Serbs are their own fault, as "The Serbs have fallen the first victims of their acts. The nationalistic paroxysm backfired"
In a nutshell, they "spread the pestilence of racism" and were rightfully punished by the others.
Simple repetition of predominant American official views. It was all peace and serenity, until madman Milosevic came to power and made his infamous speach in Kosovo in 1989 that incited rasism amongst Serbs who then went on the rampage of ethnic cleansing around Yugoslavia, thus causing peaceful democratic and tolerant ethnic groups (like Albanians, for example) to "punish" them ( with the help of their foreign allies).
Nice story for American public that probably doesn't even know where Kosovo is. But, there are problems with this story.
Read this article carefully. It's not Serbian propaganda, you'll agree. NY Times is not well known for being very pro-Serbian.
It's written on Nov 1st 1987 (before any wars in Yugoslavia) by David Binder.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE3DF143FF932A35752C1A961948260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1

So, what was the situation in Kosovo?

"Ethnic Albanians in the Government have manipulated public funds and regulations to take over land belonging to Serbs. " (Kosovo government)

"Slavic Orthodox churches have been attacked, and flags have been torn down. Wells have been poisoned and crops burned. Slavic boys have been knifed, and some young ethnic Albanians have been told by their elders to rape Serbian girls. "

"The goal of the radical nationalists among them, one said in an interview, is an ''ethnic Albania that includes western Macedonia, southern Montenegro, part of southern Serbia, Kosovo and Albania itself.'' That includes large chunks of the republics that make up the southern half of Yugoslavia. "
(the goal of radical Albanian nationalists)

"As Slavs flee the protracted violence, Kosovo is becoming what ethnic Albanian nationalists have been demanding for years, and especially strongly since the bloody rioting by ethnic Albanians in Pristina in 1981 - an ''ethnically pure'' Albanian region, a ''Republic of Kosovo'' in all but name.

The violence, a journalist in Kosovo said, is escalating to ''the worst in the last seven years.'' "

"But some Yugoslavs and some ethnic Albanians believe the struggle has spread far beyond Kosovo.''We've already lost western Macedonia to the Albanians,'' said a member of the Yugoslav party presidium, explaining that the ethnic minority had driven the Slavic Macedonians out of the region."

"Last summer, the authorities in Kosovo said they documented 40 ethnic Albanian attacks on Slavs in two months."

"In one incident, Fadil Hoxha, once the leading politician of ethnic Albanian origin in Yugoslavia, joked at an official dinner in Prizren last year that Serbian women should be used to satisfy potential ethnic Albanian rapists. After his quip was reported this October, Serbian women in Kosovo protested, and Mr. Hoxha was dismissed from the Communist Party. "

As you can see Albanian Communist leaders of Kosovo were not much different then KLA leaders of Kosovo.

"...Albanian draftee, Aziz Kelmendi, had slaughtered his Slavic comrades in the barracks at Paracin..."

4 of them, to be precise. Not unusual any more. We have seen a case of American soldier (of Muslim faith) turning agains and killing his camarads in Iraq.

It could go on. But, I suggest that you simply read an article, Lenard.

For our friend Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis attacking orthodox churches, poisoning of the wells, burning of the crops, raping and killing of Slavs appearantly does not constitute spreading "the pestilence of racism" for which Albanians should be "punished" I guess.
How about you, Lenard?
As for me, I can tell you right now, that if punishment is burning all the mosques in Kosovo, I'm against it. Or throwing out all Albanians from it.
Your Dr. Muhammad doesn't mind.
"They are not encouraged to come back because they have not yet repented.."
and don't deserve to live there because "in fact the Serbs do not want to live there humbly and humanely"

I'm sure that they would be plenty of Serbs who share this view, that all Albanians should be thrown out until they "repent" and are ready to live there "humbly and humanely".

I call those Serbs extremist. How do you call your Dr. Muhammad?

He goes on to say that (Serbs) "They enjoyed the "privilege" of tyrannizing the other nations" in Yugoslavia" etc.
Typical story so often published in American media. Serbs tyrannized everyone else, etc.
Let's just use some common sense here, Lenard.
If so, wouldn't you expect the opressor to have more rights and priviledges then the opressed?
Wouldn't you expect Serbia ("the opressor" republic)to be in a better position then Croatia ("the opressed" republic) for example?
Just pure logic.
Don't you think that Krajina, for example, would be autonomus province of Croatia, while Serbia would not have any autonomus provinces? (and now we would have Nik explaining to us that Krajina as a "subject to Federation" has a right to independence and Kosovo doesn't).
Don't you think that Serbs ("the opressors") would be in much better position in other republics where they are minority, then minorities in Serbia?
Besides, where ever there is "tyrannizing" of one nation by the other, the opressor is the one that is wealthier then the opressed. As sure as the slave-master is wealthier then a slave.
Why were then Slovenia and Croatia better off then the "opressor" Serbia?
I suggest, Lenard, to think for yourself, rather then to listen to your Dr. Muhammed.

We've seen those examples here by more then one Albanian poster.
"Kosovo had its parliament, police, education, etc. etc. Kosovo was a republic in everything but name. Serbia had no say in Kosovo. That's why we deserve independence." they say.

On the other hand they will claim to be opressed by Serbia in former Yugoslavia since the WW2.
How? It's hard to see given that Serbia had no say in Kosovo.
Lenard, try to be logical and think independently.

Same is actually statet in the NY article that I provided link for.

"...army leadership is extremely reluctant to become involved in what is, in the first place, a political issue.

Ethnic Albanians already control almost every phase of life in the autonomous province of Kosovo, including the police, judiciary, civil service, schools and factories. Non-Albanian visitors almost immediately feel the independence - and suspicion - of the ethnic Albanian authorities."

True, Army was not eager to solve this issue by force. Control of police, judiciary, civil service, schools and factories? Not exactly a picture of the opressed nation.

About Serbs and Montenegrins in Kosovo.

"In the last seven years, 20,000 of them have fled the province, often leaving behind farmsteads and houses, for the safety of the Slavic north.

Until September, the majority of the Serbian Communist Party leadership pursued a policy of seeking compromise with the Kosovo party hierarchy under its ethnic Albanian leader, Azem Vlasi.

But during a 30-hour session of the Serbian central committee in late September, the Serbian party secretary, Slobodan Milosevic, deposed Dragisa Pavlovic, as head of Belgrade's party organization, the country's largest. Mr. Milosevic accused Mr. Pavlovic of being an appeaser who was soft on Albanian radicals. Mr. Milosevic had courted the Serbian backlash vote with speeches in Kosovo itself calling for ''the policy of the hard hand.'' "

Serbian Communist Party leadership did pursue a policy of seeking compromise with the Kosovo party hierarchy for years.
When that failed, Milosevic came to power riding on discontent of Kosovo Serbs that have seen decade of opression without real help.
Milosevic later bacame not only head of the party in Belgrade, but in whole of Serbia.
Then he went to the Yugoslavian federal presidency and presented the case for reduction of Kosovo's autonomy.
It was all well documented. For example, Kosovo's police had 9 % of unsolved crimes comitted against Albanians, while 82 % of the crimes commited against non-Albanians were unsolved, etc.
Yugoslavian presidency place Kosovo back under direct Serbian control.

But, one thing has to be told here. Albanians never lost right to their language, and to be educated in their language, Albanians TV programs, newspapers, etc.
Croatia, on the other hand banned Cyrrilic or use of any "Serbian" words, closed newpapers, etc.

Who was "tyrannizing" whom?

That's right Monty. Russia WILL recognize Srpska, and are itching to. We know it, and you know it. We are in the driver's seat. The influence of your country is less and less every day, and thank God for that.
It's only a matter of time.
Cheers!

Sreten, you have made some excellent points here and all of them true, but you are wasting your time.

Albanians know all this, but they will NEVER admit to any of it. It is not in their interest.

If they were to admit even one of those points their excuse for independence would be out the window. They all know the truth, but the truth doesn't serve them.

Don't waste your time explaining anything to them as they will find a way to twist your words and only frustrate you that way.

The truth is against them, so they will NEVER accept it.
Their only weapon is distorting the truth and sarcasm.

Sreten :The link that is not working what it has to say. Bosnian Serb Entity Reportedly "in Deep Recession"

Posted on: Wednesday, 30 April 2008, 06:00 CDT

Text of report by Bosnian independent weekly Slobodna Bosna, on 24 April

[Report by Asim Metiljevic: "Dodik's Purge of Jelic's Cadres"]

By abruptly dismissing Rajko Ubiparip, one of the key ministers in the Serb Republic [RS] government in charge of economy, energy and development, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik is trying at all costs to prevent the inevitable debunking of a myth about the stunning development and spectacular renewal of the smaller B-H entity. The myth about the "better part of B-H" was mainly based on bombastically announced investments in the RS energy sector, which, as promised by Dodik, should have received over 5 billion KM [convertible marks] in foreign investments during the past year.

Energy Projects Debacle

For example's sake, Prime Minister Dodik had earlier announced that the CEZ [Czech power utility] was going to invest KM3 billion into the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant, while Russia's NeftGazinkor was expected to invest over KM2 billion in the Bosanski Brod oil refinery. Thereby Prime Minister Dodik practically gave away the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant as well as the Bosanski Brod oil refinery to the Czech and Russian strategic partners, in return expecting them to make urgent and substantial investments. However, the investments were either not received or were much smaller than initially announced. Instead of Prime Minister Dodik, the political price for the obvious investment failure was paid by his party colleague, Rajko Ubiparip, whom Dodik forced to resign "over health reasons." Well-informed sources, however, claim that the dismissed Minister Ubiparip is in good shape, unlike his former portfolio, which is far from being perfect.

This is evident from a slapdash, hasty agreement with the Czech company CEZ to invest KM3 billion into the Gacko mine and the thermoelectric plants Gacko I and Gacko II, signed on 3 December 2006. After the ceremony of signing held in Gacko, Prime Minister Dodik, addressing the numerous guests who came from all Hercegovina municipalities, triumphantly declared that the RS would soon get "one of the biggest thermal power plants in this part of Europe" and that the agreement envisioned "the biggest foreign investment in the RS's history." However, instead of the announced KM3 billion investment, Dodik's government soon received notice of a lawsuit filed by small shareholders, who had been arrogantly bypassed and practically deprived of their ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant by signing the agreement with the CEZ. Besides small shareholders, Croatia has also laid claim to ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant. Its government argues that before the war it invested one third of its capital in the construction of this plant. The problem of the infringed ownership rights of small shareholders in the Gacko thermoelectric plant shook the Banja Luka stock market like an earthquake. Early last year, in just a few weeks it plummeted to its lowest level since its founding. Indeed, in the past year it was not all smooth sailing for other regional stock markets as well. But the Banja Luka stock market recorded its sharpest-ever fall, which is believed to be exclusively the result of the reckless deprivation of small shareholders of ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant. The epilogue of the CEZ's "fabulous" investment in the Gacko thermoelectric plant is utterly miserable: the Czechs have never invested a single mark in the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant, the RS government and small shareholders have been trading accusations, and on top of everything, there emerged an almost insoluble problem of Croatia's pre-war investments in the Gacko plant.

Russians Are (not) Coming

With the same enthusiasm and excitement Dodik in late 2006 announced a Russian investment of around KM2 billion to modernize the Bosanski Brod oil refinery. In exchange, Russians got another two companies besides the Bosanski Brod refinery: the Modrica oil refinery and the oil distribution company Petrol. All three companies were nominally sold for 121.1 million euros. Considering that the Brod oil refinery's earlier debts largely exceeded this sum and that the burden of repaying them fell on the state, the RS budget profited nothing from the transaction. On the contrary, it was even depleted by approximately KM30 million! The first "serious" misunderstanding between Prime Minister Dodik and then Energy Minister Ubiparip arose precisely over this transaction. Several weeks after signing the agreement, when the RS government started paying off the oil refinery's earlier debts, Dodik and Ubiparip made completely opposite statements: the prime minister argued that the Russians had paid the whole of the promised amount (121.1 million euros), while Minister Ubiparip claimed the opposite - that the Russians had not paid a single mark, which meant that the refinery's debts were to be paid out of the RS budget.

The agreement between the Russian company NeftGazinkor and the RS government was signed 14 months ago. Since then, the beginning of operation of the Brod refinery has been postponed on five occasions. In the first few months Dodik's excuse was that the B-H Council of Ministers was delaying the adoption of a decision on the liquid fuels quality. Then, after the decision was finally adopted, Dodik blamed it on the transformation of the Russian state bank, which manages the investment, and the recent election in Russia. July 2008, when the gasoline production line is supposed to start operating, has been mentioned as the latest deadline for the Russians to begin operations at the Brod refinery. However, no mention has been made of the production of diesel fuel.

Illusion of Economic Growth

Since February 2006, when it took power in the Serb Republic, the Dodik government has announced a dozen major economic investments, none below 1 billion euros. At the same time, in the official document entitled "The RS Development Programme 2007-10," Dodik's government promised high rates of economic growth, from 8 per cent in 2007 to as much as 14 per cent in 2010.

However, the true picture of the RS economy does not correspond to Dodik's promises. On the contrary, based on available data, one can draw a totally opposite conclusion: the Serb Republic has been in a deep economic recession for more than a year now. According to official data from Republic's Institute of Statistics, the industrial production in the Serb Republic in 2007 grew at a negligibly low rate of 1.4 per cent, convincingly the lowest growth rate in the entire region. The whole range of industrial branches such as wood processing, food, metal, and textile industries recorded a sharp fall in production, seldom higher than 10 per cent! For example, in the B-H Federation, whose economy, too, does not paint a very bright picture, last year's industrial growth rate was nine times higher, reaching 11.7 per cent.

For the time being, Dodik's government manages to maintain the illusion of the Serb Republic's economic growth by occasional injections of money earned from the sale of Telekom Srpske. However, the funds decreased steadily as the money was being spent on financing budget beneficiaries and non-productive infrastructure projects of local importance, such as repairs of water supply networks, waste dumps, and roads. Among the approved projects there is none to spur production, generate more money, and create a new value. For such a situation Dodik primarily blames the Ministry of Economy, Energy, and Development headed by Rajko Ubiparip, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry headed by Radivoje Bratic. According to unofficial information, it is precisely Ubiparip and Bratic who will pay the highest price for Dodik's "lightly promised rapid advancement."

[Box] Dodik's Purge of Jelic's Cadres

In the political corridors of power, the forced resignation of Rajko Ubiparip, minister of economy, energy, and development, is believed to be Dodik's showdown with the personnel appointed by the late RS President Milan Jelic, with whom Prime Minister Dodik had not been on good terms during the last few months of his life. Well- informed sources argue that a few days before his death Jelic had not been on talking terms with Dodik. This was being linked to rumours of a plot to remove Dodik, which had allegedly been prepared by the OHR [Office of the High Representative], in connivance with Jelic and Radmanovic [Serb member of the B-H Presidency].

After Jelic's sudden death, Slavko Gojkovic, Jelic's cousin from mother's side who was recently dismissed from his post as speaker of the Modrica municipal assembly, found himself at the top of Dodik's hit list. Shortly afterward, the same fate befell Rajko Ubiparip, Jelic's former closest associate and friend.

Originally published by Slobodna Bosna, Sarajevo, in Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian 24 Apr 08 pp 6- 8.

(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.

Source: BBC Monitoring European

What is Bosnia and Herzegovina? Is it a state? OK, but who made it into a state and when? Does it have historical roots in the Balkans? Are people living in Bosnia and Herzegovina happy living in it? Have they ever fought for it and given their lives for it? Would they ever do that? Do they feel like Bosniaks or anything close to it? Have they ever felt like that? No. Bosnia and Herzegovina was a phantom state created by Austro-Hungerians and imposed to enslaved people living on this territory. Today, those people are still slaves, but this time USA imposed slavery on them. This sense of slavery will prevail among them as long as USA plays its antidemocratical game in this region, all the time blaming Serbs for everything just to hide its mean and unfair Balkan politics. So, Bosnia and Herzegovina had sense only in Yugoslavia, and if Europeans really wanted to preserve it in its unity, they should have defended Yugoslavia on the first place, because multietnic Bosnia was the essence of Yugoslavs! Now, after the destruction of Yugoslav culture and civilisation (propped up by some European states!), talking about Bosnia and Herzegovina is higly hipocritical thing to do. Today, who wants Bosnia and Herzegovina? Just Muslems living there. Muslems also wanted independece of Kosovo, and they got it. So whatever the Muslems on the Balkans wanted, they got it. Integral Bosnia and independent Kosovo. Let us see what is the next thing they would want be granted by American enslavers. Noone wanted Yugoslavia because it was allegedly predomonated by Serbs, and at the end, everyone was given right to live on their own except for Serbs! As the result, today many Serbs live as the minority ethnic groups scatterd in various mini-states throughout the Balkans, from Macedonia to Croatia, their democratic right to create their own state was denied whereas all the others created their ``historically proven`` states. When a Muslem wnats its indpendence, it is regarded as a democratic cry for freedom, but when a Serb wnats the same, it is regarded as a fierce Serbian nationalism and hatred, although it is all vice-versa.

Dodik is in a great position to simply sit tight and let others fret over what he might do next.

Bosnia is, for all intents and purposes, an nonentity. More powers are delegated to both RS and Federation, and Montgomery hits the nail squarely on the head in hinting Bosnia only exists because the US wants it to. Were a referendum like Montenegro held tomorrow, "Bosnia" would probably split into three entities: RS, a Croat state and a rump Bosniak state. Both Serb and Croat entities would probably seek to join with Serbia and Croatia respectively.

But because it is not in the national interest of the US to support an internal secession movement as it is convenient for them to do it in Kosovo Province, nothing will come of it. So Dodik is simply waiting for US influence to wane, and for EU influence to grow. He may not achieve outright independence, but he can certainly extract larger guarantees of regional autonomy from EUrocrats who will probably grant the same rights to K Serbs as well.

Bosnia's fate is inextricably linked with that of Kosovo. Had the US not pushed for premature independence, secession movements in Bosnia might not be as strong as they are today. But once again, seeing the region only though Washington's eyes, we failed to note the repercussions and long term fallouts that are still plaguing Bosnia's sovereignty and perceived sense of workable sovereignty.

And if all Washington can do to argue for Kosovo's alleged independence is play the Vox Populi card, turning a blind eye to RS is both hypocritical and dangerous.

Good luck RS in whatever way you go.

Sreten-Leonard dialog is a dialog of the deaf, and I think it is a high time for the Serbs to stop arguing with Albanians.
They have an upper hand at the moment, as they are backed by the so called EU and the US (and I may add our Serbian corupt politicians). This may not last much longer now.
Russia and China are getting stronger by the day and the US more desoriented at the same pace. Soon will come the breaking point when
the American imperialism is going to show its true weakness, for the last idiot to see.
Serbs shouldn't lose their cool and just wait for their opportunity. It will come sooner than their detractors believe.

@dejan: bosnia existed hundreds and hundreds of years before the austro-hungarian empire.

Bad Gorilla, since when did Kosovo exist as a country?
You give Montenegro the right to secede because it was a country once upon a time, but by what reason do you give Kosovo the right to do the same from Serbia?

Don't start with the ethnic cleansing as this has been established as propaganda. Numbers have been distorted. Actually the reverse it true. According to John Pilger he writes about this in his book "New Rulers of the World". He states that 200,000 Serbs were ethnically cleansed from Kosovo under the noses of UN.

Also, the fact that Russia supports RS and therefore they can talk boldly is no different from Albanians talking boldly because the US supports them. So you see, don't whinge about something Serbs are getting while you are getting the same and more of it. Hypocracy is an ugly thing.

Monty this is probably the best article you have written for B92.

What he did was to compare what happen in Montenegro to what happened in R.S. Really is he right on the dot. Nobody succeeded a peaceful independence by just charging for it.. otherwise you end up like Bosnia and Croatia.. war torn. But Montenegro took their time, picked their poison and did it when it was most appropriate.

Republika Srpska WILL do the same. Monty you said that R.S. faces bigger opposition than Montenegro ever did.. that maybe so.. but R.S. is also more determined to achieve independence more than the people of Montenegro ever did.


All in all I think the Republic of Montenegro is just a temporary state. Although the west have tried to do as much as they can to point out the difference between Orthodox Serbs and the rest of Former Yugoslavia.. they will fail in Montenegro. Even the pro independents in Montenegro know all in all Serbs and "Montenegrins" are the same people with the same exact culture. All it would take is for a few thousand Serbs from Serbia to move to Montenegro and we could demographically and of course peacefully take back Montenegro.

Same goes for Republika Srpska

Milosevic had from 1996 to 1999 to propose a trade off Kosovo for Srpska. He didn't and lost them both.
Connecting the fates of both regions in a positive way is still unthinkable. Serb polititians are expected to swear that they will NEVER recognize Kosovo and a trade off proposal is still unchartered territory. Yet a serious suggestion that Serbia WILL recognize Kosovo IF Srpska is given the same right of self-determination may switch much of the international public opinion in Srebia's favour.
1. Serbs will no longer be seen as totally obstructive.
2. Serbs could no longer be blamed for double standarts.
3. The Serbian proposal may be regarded as a way of bringing stabillity to both Kosovo and Bosnia.

Like in the case of the defunct Yugoslavia, the International community could find it easy to decleare that BiH has seased to exist and recognise Srepska and the Croat state that simultaneously proclaimed its independence. Indeed the only sensible reason agains such a move will be the small and inconteguous Bosniak state.

Yet judging from the Serbian history, such a trade off will NOT be offered. The thinking: "Srpska is ours, because it is populated by Serbs, Kosovo is ours, because it is internationally recognized as such", most probably will prevail.
So I am afraid that chance will be missed.

I don't think Montenegro's independence and Republika Srpska's similar aspirations are a good comparison. However folks like Bad Gorilla are missing the point.

In the new world order we don't need to have historical accuracy otherwise there would be no such thing as a Bosniak. Moreover things like national sovereignty can be violated with no legal justification. The Kosovo UDI and the entire fall of Yugoslavia is a fine example of this.

The bottom line is that Bosna-Hercegovina was a politically manufactured country and when it it politically convenient it will be taken apart.

Afterall, it's not only what the Serbs want, but most Croats also. Hard to say a country is viable, when the majority of the citizens of that country don't want the country to exist.

Thus, everyone will just try to bide their time and make the most out of the current situation just like Montgomery suggests.

In the meantime, let's work together to make sure the divorce is as peaceful as possible.

Montgomery's article raises some fair points of comparison between the former Montenegrin position and that of RS now. However, if he is right about Dodik's long-term aim - and I would not dispute that - the likely success of the strategy will depend on certain subtleties, the balance of which does not seem right in Montgomery's analysis. The comparison, to begin with, depends on an arguable case for secession. MNE has historical boundaries on its side; even Kosovo could, with considerably more difficulty, argue this way. RS has only analogy, rather weak in many respects, to rely upon.

Rather than view Đukanović as going from hero to villain to hero in the eyes of the international community, it would be more accurate to say that most people - even a casual observer like myself - could see what Đukanović's aim was and therefore the cobbling together of the SCG entity was largely a delaying tactic to avoid heaping instability upon instability too quickly. Independence was always a likely - if sometimes reluctantly accepted - outcome and the 55% requirement, while undeniably arbitrary, did serve a useful function.

Dodik also appears to have time on his side. The SAA will not make one iota of difference to the average resident of RS for a long time. Indeed, my impression is that most people in BiH generally see joining the EU as either a very distant prospect or something which will never happen. This is inevitable: the move from SAA to membership cannot be achieved quickly and the benefits along the way will be far from obvious. (Here, I think, the EU has been rather lax in promoting its advantages.) The time-scale certainly allows politicians within RS to stall progress but time can work against Dodik as well as for him. The stalling would have to be constant and sustained - but constant negativity is hard to sustain (as well as being sometimes disadvantageous) and small concessions do accumulate. I am sure Dodik - along with other politicians within BiH would be happy to see the OHR go. The strange omission in the article is what the influence of Russia might be in that happening and exactly how important the disappearance of the OHR might be, (as well as the likely effects of that eventuality on the whole of BiH).

Really, the analysis seems to be mired in the 1990s. While nobody would suggest that the US has little influence in the Balkans, the balance of influences has changed over the past decade or so. This is not the EU of the 1990s - and I doubt it is quite as naive as Montgomery seems to imply.

And the most important word in his final paragraph is 'if'....

In terms of History, we cannot compare Montenegro with Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. Montenegro existed as and independent country since 1878, and becoming independent again in 2006, with coherent, contiguous borders that not changed so much in the last 100 years.

Republika Srpska is another thing: it’s an artificial product of negotiations that aimed to stop the Milosevic Yugoslav War Machine and halt the massive genocide campaingn that was destroying the nation that became independent in 1992. RS just became recognized by the international community in the end of 1995.

RS borders are highly incoherent, being a gerrymandering created on the base of war lines, and non-contiguous too, since Brcko (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%C4%8Dko_District) and Posavina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posavina_Canton) don’t belong to Banja Luka, but to Sarajevo authorities. Would Sarajevo cede this territory trough “peaceful negotiations”? It’s highly unlikely, to say the least.

Dodik is playing bold with RS because he knows Russia supports him, and the EU don’t want to irritate relations with the greatest Oil and Gas producer of the Earth. But for the sake of Balkan peace and stability, Lajcak should act in a bold way, too, and sack Dodik from the Bosnian Serb leadership. He should do this while he still has the Bonn Powers.

Mr. Montgomery, you suggest that the EU and the US were against the secession of Montenegro. Sure, their diplomats talked that way. But at the same time they told Montenegro that as an independent state it would receive more aid and - unconnected from the maligned Serbia - had a good chance to get faster into the EU. The Montengrins were smart enough to see which signal they had to follow - as before the Croats, Slovenes, Bosnians and Macedionians.

You state that Montenegro made a good impression in the West by accepting the 55% barrier. You forget to mention that that was compensated by denying the (mostly anti-independence) emigrants to Serbia voting rights while they were given to the (mostly pro-independence) emigrants to other areas. It was yet another case that gives the West's handling of the Balkans such a bad name.

Unlike in Montenegro that voted only hesitantly for independence the support in the RS is rather strong. It doesn't help that the international community until the present day hasn't chosen how they want Bosnia to look in the end: a Switzerland with three equal groups or a Muslim dominated republic. Dayton follows the first model but we keep hearing diplomats advocating the second model - claiming that Dayton is outdated. As long as the international community doesn't get its act together on this subject I see little chance for Bosnia to survive. And even then a change of heart on the Muslim side would be necessary.

“Bad Gorilla, since when did Kosovo exist as a country?
You give Montenegro the right to secede because it was a country once upon a time, but by what reason do you give Kosovo the right to do the same from Serbia?”

Because Kosovo had an clearly an Albanian majority since the 19th century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image%3ABalkans-ethnique.JPG), because Kosovo is a separated entity from Central Serbia since 1945, because Kosovo since 1974 was governed independently from Central Serbia, with its own assembly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Communists_of_Kosovo), Albanian-language universities and press, because since 1980 Kosovo had equal rights with Central Serbia, Vojvodina, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Macedonia with the sharing of the presidency of Yugoslavia in Belgrade; and mainly because Slobodan Milosevic, the same man that commanded the massacre of Bosnians and Croatians to expand the Yugoslav borders of Serbia and illegaly annuled the autonomies of Kosovo and Vojvodia to put all of Yugoslavia under Central Serbia’s Communist Party rule, enginered the mass killing, rape and expulsion of the Kosovars to create a Serb-dominated and Serb-populated province. He was just stopped because of NATO decisive intervention.

To talk about Republika Srpska’s “independence” after all that happened (http://www.un.org/icty/indictment/english/mla-ai021010e.htm) and continues to happening (http://uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKL15646923._CH_.242020080715) is an insult to the memory of the fallen and a reward to people who still follow people like Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic.

And a government that goes like this (http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/07/16/bosher19381.htm) hardly can be defined as a “role model”…

@Bad gorilla

Does your memory of the fallen in #17 include all the Serbs rounded up and sent to Jasenovac? Does it include the Serbs from Bratunac massacred by Naser Oric? Does it also include the thousands of other Serbs killed in the last war? Does it include all the Serbs persecuted by Muslims during the Ottoman period?

Instead of spreading propaganda, I think it's time we make sure tragedies like this don't occur in the future. That's why Srpska Republika will need to say au revoir to Bosnia.

Bad gorilla, You can link,link all over the place but you just cannot show me where and when did Kosovo exist as a country.

Until you can show me Kosovo as an independent sovereign country please don't bother linking all over the place. It's useless as it doesn't answer my question.

OK,so if Kosovo is officaly declared independent,which is 21 nations recognising it for now,then the Serb REpublic has the right to do the same thing,and that may even,unfortunately set a chain event making much more regions going independent,even Greenland and Quebec even.Still,another thing is that if Srpska gets independent,then there is no reason for two same people territoryies to be apart,meaning that there is a powerfull possiblity that Srpksa unites with Serbia.Further more,not all of Kosovo has Albanian minority,it's north is Serbian,so it can declare it's own independence and unite back with Serbia,so the question is,will Serbia loose or gain from Kosovo independence?

The best laid plans of men and mice Dodik Srpska entity is heading for a big fall. It is a fasad without Serbia propping it up it would have collapsed and disappeared long ago in to history militarily and economically. It is not Bosnia hanging on to barely survival mode but fictitious made up Srpska based on murder and ethnic cleansing. http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1363872/bosnian_serb_entity_reportedly_in_deep_recession/ http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/56189

In terms of History, we cannot compare Montenegro with Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. Montenegro existed as and independent country since 1878, and becoming independent again in 2006, with coherent, contiguous borders that not changed so much in the last 100 years.

Republika Srpska is another thing: it’s an artificial product of negotiations that aimed to stop the Milosevic Yugoslav War Machine and halt the massive genocide campaingn that was destroying the nation that became independent in 1992. RS just became recognized by the international community in the end of 1995.

RS borders are highly incoherent, being a gerrymandering created on the base of war lines, and non-contiguous too, since Brcko (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%C4%8Dko_District) and Posavina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posavina_Canton) don’t belong to Banja Luka, but to Sarajevo authorities. Would Sarajevo cede this territory trough “peaceful negotiations”? It’s highly unlikely, to say the least.

Dodik is playing bold with RS because he knows Russia supports him, and the EU don’t want to irritate relations with the greatest Oil and Gas producer of the Earth. But for the sake of Balkan peace and stability, Lajcak should act in a bold way, too, and sack Dodik from the Bosnian Serb leadership. He should do this while he still has the Bonn Powers.

That's right Monty. Russia WILL recognize Srpska, and are itching to. We know it, and you know it. We are in the driver's seat. The influence of your country is less and less every day, and thank God for that.
It's only a matter of time.
Cheers!

What is Bosnia and Herzegovina? Is it a state? OK, but who made it into a state and when? Does it have historical roots in the Balkans? Are people living in Bosnia and Herzegovina happy living in it? Have they ever fought for it and given their lives for it? Would they ever do that? Do they feel like Bosniaks or anything close to it? Have they ever felt like that? No. Bosnia and Herzegovina was a phantom state created by Austro-Hungerians and imposed to enslaved people living on this territory. Today, those people are still slaves, but this time USA imposed slavery on them. This sense of slavery will prevail among them as long as USA plays its antidemocratical game in this region, all the time blaming Serbs for everything just to hide its mean and unfair Balkan politics. So, Bosnia and Herzegovina had sense only in Yugoslavia, and if Europeans really wanted to preserve it in its unity, they should have defended Yugoslavia on the first place, because multietnic Bosnia was the essence of Yugoslavs! Now, after the destruction of Yugoslav culture and civilisation (propped up by some European states!), talking about Bosnia and Herzegovina is higly hipocritical thing to do. Today, who wants Bosnia and Herzegovina? Just Muslems living there. Muslems also wanted independece of Kosovo, and they got it. So whatever the Muslems on the Balkans wanted, they got it. Integral Bosnia and independent Kosovo. Let us see what is the next thing they would want be granted by American enslavers. Noone wanted Yugoslavia because it was allegedly predomonated by Serbs, and at the end, everyone was given right to live on their own except for Serbs! As the result, today many Serbs live as the minority ethnic groups scatterd in various mini-states throughout the Balkans, from Macedonia to Croatia, their democratic right to create their own state was denied whereas all the others created their ``historically proven`` states. When a Muslem wnats its indpendence, it is regarded as a democratic cry for freedom, but when a Serb wnats the same, it is regarded as a fierce Serbian nationalism and hatred, although it is all vice-versa.

First, to Lenard.
Your first link is not working so I don't know what it is. Your second link leads to the article written by Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis and published in "American Chronicle".
It's full of "American views" that I'm not subscribed to.
In conclusion the whole problem in former Yugoslavia was created by "the attitudes and the stance of today´s Serbs" characterised by "racism, racial and religious hatred, intolerance, historical rancor, discriminatory prejudices against other nations" etc.
In his view today's Serbs are "Anti-Albanian, Anti-Bosnian, Anti-Croatian, Anti-Hungarian, Anti-Kosovar, Anti-Macedonian, Anti-Italian, Anti-Turkish, Anti-Christian (Catholic), and Anti-Islamic"
In his view, all bed things that happened to Serbs are their own fault, as "The Serbs have fallen the first victims of their acts. The nationalistic paroxysm backfired"
In a nutshell, they "spread the pestilence of racism" and were rightfully punished by the others.
Simple repetition of predominant American official views. It was all peace and serenity, until madman Milosevic came to power and made his infamous speach in Kosovo in 1989 that incited rasism amongst Serbs who then went on the rampage of ethnic cleansing around Yugoslavia, thus causing peaceful democratic and tolerant ethnic groups (like Albanians, for example) to "punish" them ( with the help of their foreign allies).
Nice story for American public that probably doesn't even know where Kosovo is. But, there are problems with this story.
Read this article carefully. It's not Serbian propaganda, you'll agree. NY Times is not well known for being very pro-Serbian.
It's written on Nov 1st 1987 (before any wars in Yugoslavia) by David Binder.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE3DF143FF932A35752C1A961948260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1

So, what was the situation in Kosovo?

"Ethnic Albanians in the Government have manipulated public funds and regulations to take over land belonging to Serbs. " (Kosovo government)

"Slavic Orthodox churches have been attacked, and flags have been torn down. Wells have been poisoned and crops burned. Slavic boys have been knifed, and some young ethnic Albanians have been told by their elders to rape Serbian girls. "

"The goal of the radical nationalists among them, one said in an interview, is an ''ethnic Albania that includes western Macedonia, southern Montenegro, part of southern Serbia, Kosovo and Albania itself.'' That includes large chunks of the republics that make up the southern half of Yugoslavia. "
(the goal of radical Albanian nationalists)

"As Slavs flee the protracted violence, Kosovo is becoming what ethnic Albanian nationalists have been demanding for years, and especially strongly since the bloody rioting by ethnic Albanians in Pristina in 1981 - an ''ethnically pure'' Albanian region, a ''Republic of Kosovo'' in all but name.

The violence, a journalist in Kosovo said, is escalating to ''the worst in the last seven years.'' "

"But some Yugoslavs and some ethnic Albanians believe the struggle has spread far beyond Kosovo.''We've already lost western Macedonia to the Albanians,'' said a member of the Yugoslav party presidium, explaining that the ethnic minority had driven the Slavic Macedonians out of the region."

"Last summer, the authorities in Kosovo said they documented 40 ethnic Albanian attacks on Slavs in two months."

"In one incident, Fadil Hoxha, once the leading politician of ethnic Albanian origin in Yugoslavia, joked at an official dinner in Prizren last year that Serbian women should be used to satisfy potential ethnic Albanian rapists. After his quip was reported this October, Serbian women in Kosovo protested, and Mr. Hoxha was dismissed from the Communist Party. "

As you can see Albanian Communist leaders of Kosovo were not much different then KLA leaders of Kosovo.

"...Albanian draftee, Aziz Kelmendi, had slaughtered his Slavic comrades in the barracks at Paracin..."

4 of them, to be precise. Not unusual any more. We have seen a case of American soldier (of Muslim faith) turning agains and killing his camarads in Iraq.

It could go on. But, I suggest that you simply read an article, Lenard.

For our friend Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis attacking orthodox churches, poisoning of the wells, burning of the crops, raping and killing of Slavs appearantly does not constitute spreading "the pestilence of racism" for which Albanians should be "punished" I guess.
How about you, Lenard?
As for me, I can tell you right now, that if punishment is burning all the mosques in Kosovo, I'm against it. Or throwing out all Albanians from it.
Your Dr. Muhammad doesn't mind.
"They are not encouraged to come back because they have not yet repented.."
and don't deserve to live there because "in fact the Serbs do not want to live there humbly and humanely"

I'm sure that they would be plenty of Serbs who share this view, that all Albanians should be thrown out until they "repent" and are ready to live there "humbly and humanely".

I call those Serbs extremist. How do you call your Dr. Muhammad?

He goes on to say that (Serbs) "They enjoyed the "privilege" of tyrannizing the other nations" in Yugoslavia" etc.
Typical story so often published in American media. Serbs tyrannized everyone else, etc.
Let's just use some common sense here, Lenard.
If so, wouldn't you expect the opressor to have more rights and priviledges then the opressed?
Wouldn't you expect Serbia ("the opressor" republic)to be in a better position then Croatia ("the opressed" republic) for example?
Just pure logic.
Don't you think that Krajina, for example, would be autonomus province of Croatia, while Serbia would not have any autonomus provinces? (and now we would have Nik explaining to us that Krajina as a "subject to Federation" has a right to independence and Kosovo doesn't).
Don't you think that Serbs ("the opressors") would be in much better position in other republics where they are minority, then minorities in Serbia?
Besides, where ever there is "tyrannizing" of one nation by the other, the opressor is the one that is wealthier then the opressed. As sure as the slave-master is wealthier then a slave.
Why were then Slovenia and Croatia better off then the "opressor" Serbia?
I suggest, Lenard, to think for yourself, rather then to listen to your Dr. Muhammed.

We've seen those examples here by more then one Albanian poster.
"Kosovo had its parliament, police, education, etc. etc. Kosovo was a republic in everything but name. Serbia had no say in Kosovo. That's why we deserve independence." they say.

On the other hand they will claim to be opressed by Serbia in former Yugoslavia since the WW2.
How? It's hard to see given that Serbia had no say in Kosovo.
Lenard, try to be logical and think independently.

Same is actually statet in the NY article that I provided link for.

"...army leadership is extremely reluctant to become involved in what is, in the first place, a political issue.

Ethnic Albanians already control almost every phase of life in the autonomous province of Kosovo, including the police, judiciary, civil service, schools and factories. Non-Albanian visitors almost immediately feel the independence - and suspicion - of the ethnic Albanian authorities."

True, Army was not eager to solve this issue by force. Control of police, judiciary, civil service, schools and factories? Not exactly a picture of the opressed nation.

About Serbs and Montenegrins in Kosovo.

"In the last seven years, 20,000 of them have fled the province, often leaving behind farmsteads and houses, for the safety of the Slavic north.

Until September, the majority of the Serbian Communist Party leadership pursued a policy of seeking compromise with the Kosovo party hierarchy under its ethnic Albanian leader, Azem Vlasi.

But during a 30-hour session of the Serbian central committee in late September, the Serbian party secretary, Slobodan Milosevic, deposed Dragisa Pavlovic, as head of Belgrade's party organization, the country's largest. Mr. Milosevic accused Mr. Pavlovic of being an appeaser who was soft on Albanian radicals. Mr. Milosevic had courted the Serbian backlash vote with speeches in Kosovo itself calling for ''the policy of the hard hand.'' "

Serbian Communist Party leadership did pursue a policy of seeking compromise with the Kosovo party hierarchy for years.
When that failed, Milosevic came to power riding on discontent of Kosovo Serbs that have seen decade of opression without real help.
Milosevic later bacame not only head of the party in Belgrade, but in whole of Serbia.
Then he went to the Yugoslavian federal presidency and presented the case for reduction of Kosovo's autonomy.
It was all well documented. For example, Kosovo's police had 9 % of unsolved crimes comitted against Albanians, while 82 % of the crimes commited against non-Albanians were unsolved, etc.
Yugoslavian presidency place Kosovo back under direct Serbian control.

But, one thing has to be told here. Albanians never lost right to their language, and to be educated in their language, Albanians TV programs, newspapers, etc.
Croatia, on the other hand banned Cyrrilic or use of any "Serbian" words, closed newpapers, etc.

Who was "tyrannizing" whom?

Sreten, you have made some excellent points here and all of them true, but you are wasting your time.

Albanians know all this, but they will NEVER admit to any of it. It is not in their interest.

If they were to admit even one of those points their excuse for independence would be out the window. They all know the truth, but the truth doesn't serve them.

Don't waste your time explaining anything to them as they will find a way to twist your words and only frustrate you that way.

The truth is against them, so they will NEVER accept it.
Their only weapon is distorting the truth and sarcasm.

Milosevic had from 1996 to 1999 to propose a trade off Kosovo for Srpska. He didn't and lost them both.
Connecting the fates of both regions in a positive way is still unthinkable. Serb polititians are expected to swear that they will NEVER recognize Kosovo and a trade off proposal is still unchartered territory. Yet a serious suggestion that Serbia WILL recognize Kosovo IF Srpska is given the same right of self-determination may switch much of the international public opinion in Srebia's favour.
1. Serbs will no longer be seen as totally obstructive.
2. Serbs could no longer be blamed for double standarts.
3. The Serbian proposal may be regarded as a way of bringing stabillity to both Kosovo and Bosnia.

Like in the case of the defunct Yugoslavia, the International community could find it easy to decleare that BiH has seased to exist and recognise Srepska and the Croat state that simultaneously proclaimed its independence. Indeed the only sensible reason agains such a move will be the small and inconteguous Bosniak state.

Yet judging from the Serbian history, such a trade off will NOT be offered. The thinking: "Srpska is ours, because it is populated by Serbs, Kosovo is ours, because it is internationally recognized as such", most probably will prevail.
So I am afraid that chance will be missed.

Sreten :The link that is not working what it has to say. Bosnian Serb Entity Reportedly "in Deep Recession"

Posted on: Wednesday, 30 April 2008, 06:00 CDT

Text of report by Bosnian independent weekly Slobodna Bosna, on 24 April

[Report by Asim Metiljevic: "Dodik's Purge of Jelic's Cadres"]

By abruptly dismissing Rajko Ubiparip, one of the key ministers in the Serb Republic [RS] government in charge of economy, energy and development, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik is trying at all costs to prevent the inevitable debunking of a myth about the stunning development and spectacular renewal of the smaller B-H entity. The myth about the "better part of B-H" was mainly based on bombastically announced investments in the RS energy sector, which, as promised by Dodik, should have received over 5 billion KM [convertible marks] in foreign investments during the past year.

Energy Projects Debacle

For example's sake, Prime Minister Dodik had earlier announced that the CEZ [Czech power utility] was going to invest KM3 billion into the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant, while Russia's NeftGazinkor was expected to invest over KM2 billion in the Bosanski Brod oil refinery. Thereby Prime Minister Dodik practically gave away the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant as well as the Bosanski Brod oil refinery to the Czech and Russian strategic partners, in return expecting them to make urgent and substantial investments. However, the investments were either not received or were much smaller than initially announced. Instead of Prime Minister Dodik, the political price for the obvious investment failure was paid by his party colleague, Rajko Ubiparip, whom Dodik forced to resign "over health reasons." Well-informed sources, however, claim that the dismissed Minister Ubiparip is in good shape, unlike his former portfolio, which is far from being perfect.

This is evident from a slapdash, hasty agreement with the Czech company CEZ to invest KM3 billion into the Gacko mine and the thermoelectric plants Gacko I and Gacko II, signed on 3 December 2006. After the ceremony of signing held in Gacko, Prime Minister Dodik, addressing the numerous guests who came from all Hercegovina municipalities, triumphantly declared that the RS would soon get "one of the biggest thermal power plants in this part of Europe" and that the agreement envisioned "the biggest foreign investment in the RS's history." However, instead of the announced KM3 billion investment, Dodik's government soon received notice of a lawsuit filed by small shareholders, who had been arrogantly bypassed and practically deprived of their ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant by signing the agreement with the CEZ. Besides small shareholders, Croatia has also laid claim to ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant. Its government argues that before the war it invested one third of its capital in the construction of this plant. The problem of the infringed ownership rights of small shareholders in the Gacko thermoelectric plant shook the Banja Luka stock market like an earthquake. Early last year, in just a few weeks it plummeted to its lowest level since its founding. Indeed, in the past year it was not all smooth sailing for other regional stock markets as well. But the Banja Luka stock market recorded its sharpest-ever fall, which is believed to be exclusively the result of the reckless deprivation of small shareholders of ownership in the Gacko thermoelectric plant. The epilogue of the CEZ's "fabulous" investment in the Gacko thermoelectric plant is utterly miserable: the Czechs have never invested a single mark in the Gacko mine and thermoelectric plant, the RS government and small shareholders have been trading accusations, and on top of everything, there emerged an almost insoluble problem of Croatia's pre-war investments in the Gacko plant.

Russians Are (not) Coming

With the same enthusiasm and excitement Dodik in late 2006 announced a Russian investment of around KM2 billion to modernize the Bosanski Brod oil refinery. In exchange, Russians got another two companies besides the Bosanski Brod refinery: the Modrica oil refinery and the oil distribution company Petrol. All three companies were nominally sold for 121.1 million euros. Considering that the Brod oil refinery's earlier debts largely exceeded this sum and that the burden of repaying them fell on the state, the RS budget profited nothing from the transaction. On the contrary, it was even depleted by approximately KM30 million! The first "serious" misunderstanding between Prime Minister Dodik and then Energy Minister Ubiparip arose precisely over this transaction. Several weeks after signing the agreement, when the RS government started paying off the oil refinery's earlier debts, Dodik and Ubiparip made completely opposite statements: the prime minister argued that the Russians had paid the whole of the promised amount (121.1 million euros), while Minister Ubiparip claimed the opposite - that the Russians had not paid a single mark, which meant that the refinery's debts were to be paid out of the RS budget.

The agreement between the Russian company NeftGazinkor and the RS government was signed 14 months ago. Since then, the beginning of operation of the Brod refinery has been postponed on five occasions. In the first few months Dodik's excuse was that the B-H Council of Ministers was delaying the adoption of a decision on the liquid fuels quality. Then, after the decision was finally adopted, Dodik blamed it on the transformation of the Russian state bank, which manages the investment, and the recent election in Russia. July 2008, when the gasoline production line is supposed to start operating, has been mentioned as the latest deadline for the Russians to begin operations at the Brod refinery. However, no mention has been made of the production of diesel fuel.

Illusion of Economic Growth

Since February 2006, when it took power in the Serb Republic, the Dodik government has announced a dozen major economic investments, none below 1 billion euros. At the same time, in the official document entitled "The RS Development Programme 2007-10," Dodik's government promised high rates of economic growth, from 8 per cent in 2007 to as much as 14 per cent in 2010.

However, the true picture of the RS economy does not correspond to Dodik's promises. On the contrary, based on available data, one can draw a totally opposite conclusion: the Serb Republic has been in a deep economic recession for more than a year now. According to official data from Republic's Institute of Statistics, the industrial production in the Serb Republic in 2007 grew at a negligibly low rate of 1.4 per cent, convincingly the lowest growth rate in the entire region. The whole range of industrial branches such as wood processing, food, metal, and textile industries recorded a sharp fall in production, seldom higher than 10 per cent! For example, in the B-H Federation, whose economy, too, does not paint a very bright picture, last year's industrial growth rate was nine times higher, reaching 11.7 per cent.

For the time being, Dodik's government manages to maintain the illusion of the Serb Republic's economic growth by occasional injections of money earned from the sale of Telekom Srpske. However, the funds decreased steadily as the money was being spent on financing budget beneficiaries and non-productive infrastructure projects of local importance, such as repairs of water supply networks, waste dumps, and roads. Among the approved projects there is none to spur production, generate more money, and create a new value. For such a situation Dodik primarily blames the Ministry of Economy, Energy, and Development headed by Rajko Ubiparip, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry headed by Radivoje Bratic. According to unofficial information, it is precisely Ubiparip and Bratic who will pay the highest price for Dodik's "lightly promised rapid advancement."

[Box] Dodik's Purge of Jelic's Cadres

In the political corridors of power, the forced resignation of Rajko Ubiparip, minister of economy, energy, and development, is believed to be Dodik's showdown with the personnel appointed by the late RS President Milan Jelic, with whom Prime Minister Dodik had not been on good terms during the last few months of his life. Well- informed sources argue that a few days before his death Jelic had not been on talking terms with Dodik. This was being linked to rumours of a plot to remove Dodik, which had allegedly been prepared by the OHR [Office of the High Representative], in connivance with Jelic and Radmanovic [Serb member of the B-H Presidency].

After Jelic's sudden death, Slavko Gojkovic, Jelic's cousin from mother's side who was recently dismissed from his post as speaker of the Modrica municipal assembly, found himself at the top of Dodik's hit list. Shortly afterward, the same fate befell Rajko Ubiparip, Jelic's former closest associate and friend.

Originally published by Slobodna Bosna, Sarajevo, in Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian 24 Apr 08 pp 6- 8.

(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.

Source: BBC Monitoring European

Sreten-Leonard dialog is a dialog of the deaf, and I think it is a high time for the Serbs to stop arguing with Albanians.
They have an upper hand at the moment, as they are backed by the so called EU and the US (and I may add our Serbian corupt politicians). This may not last much longer now.
Russia and China are getting stronger by the day and the US more desoriented at the same pace. Soon will come the breaking point when
the American imperialism is going to show its true weakness, for the last idiot to see.
Serbs shouldn't lose their cool and just wait for their opportunity. It will come sooner than their detractors believe.

Bad Gorilla, since when did Kosovo exist as a country?
You give Montenegro the right to secede because it was a country once upon a time, but by what reason do you give Kosovo the right to do the same from Serbia?

Don't start with the ethnic cleansing as this has been established as propaganda. Numbers have been distorted. Actually the reverse it true. According to John Pilger he writes about this in his book "New Rulers of the World". He states that 200,000 Serbs were ethnically cleansed from Kosovo under the noses of UN.

Also, the fact that Russia supports RS and therefore they can talk boldly is no different from Albanians talking boldly because the US supports them. So you see, don't whinge about something Serbs are getting while you are getting the same and more of it. Hypocracy is an ugly thing.

I don't think Montenegro's independence and Republika Srpska's similar aspirations are a good comparison. However folks like Bad Gorilla are missing the point.

In the new world order we don't need to have historical accuracy otherwise there would be no such thing as a Bosniak. Moreover things like national sovereignty can be violated with no legal justification. The Kosovo UDI and the entire fall of Yugoslavia is a fine example of this.

The bottom line is that Bosna-Hercegovina was a politically manufactured country and when it it politically convenient it will be taken apart.

Afterall, it's not only what the Serbs want, but most Croats also. Hard to say a country is viable, when the majority of the citizens of that country don't want the country to exist.

Thus, everyone will just try to bide their time and make the most out of the current situation just like Montgomery suggests.

In the meantime, let's work together to make sure the divorce is as peaceful as possible.

Monty this is probably the best article you have written for B92.

What he did was to compare what happen in Montenegro to what happened in R.S. Really is he right on the dot. Nobody succeeded a peaceful independence by just charging for it.. otherwise you end up like Bosnia and Croatia.. war torn. But Montenegro took their time, picked their poison and did it when it was most appropriate.

Republika Srpska WILL do the same. Monty you said that R.S. faces bigger opposition than Montenegro ever did.. that maybe so.. but R.S. is also more determined to achieve independence more than the people of Montenegro ever did.


All in all I think the Republic of Montenegro is just a temporary state. Although the west have tried to do as much as they can to point out the difference between Orthodox Serbs and the rest of Former Yugoslavia.. they will fail in Montenegro. Even the pro independents in Montenegro know all in all Serbs and "Montenegrins" are the same people with the same exact culture. All it would take is for a few thousand Serbs from Serbia to move to Montenegro and we could demographically and of course peacefully take back Montenegro.

Same goes for Republika Srpska

Dodik is in a great position to simply sit tight and let others fret over what he might do next.

Bosnia is, for all intents and purposes, an nonentity. More powers are delegated to both RS and Federation, and Montgomery hits the nail squarely on the head in hinting Bosnia only exists because the US wants it to. Were a referendum like Montenegro held tomorrow, "Bosnia" would probably split into three entities: RS, a Croat state and a rump Bosniak state. Both Serb and Croat entities would probably seek to join with Serbia and Croatia respectively.

But because it is not in the national interest of the US to support an internal secession movement as it is convenient for them to do it in Kosovo Province, nothing will come of it. So Dodik is simply waiting for US influence to wane, and for EU influence to grow. He may not achieve outright independence, but he can certainly extract larger guarantees of regional autonomy from EUrocrats who will probably grant the same rights to K Serbs as well.

Bosnia's fate is inextricably linked with that of Kosovo. Had the US not pushed for premature independence, secession movements in Bosnia might not be as strong as they are today. But once again, seeing the region only though Washington's eyes, we failed to note the repercussions and long term fallouts that are still plaguing Bosnia's sovereignty and perceived sense of workable sovereignty.

And if all Washington can do to argue for Kosovo's alleged independence is play the Vox Populi card, turning a blind eye to RS is both hypocritical and dangerous.

Good luck RS in whatever way you go.

@dejan: bosnia existed hundreds and hundreds of years before the austro-hungarian empire.

Montgomery's article raises some fair points of comparison between the former Montenegrin position and that of RS now. However, if he is right about Dodik's long-term aim - and I would not dispute that - the likely success of the strategy will depend on certain subtleties, the balance of which does not seem right in Montgomery's analysis. The comparison, to begin with, depends on an arguable case for secession. MNE has historical boundaries on its side; even Kosovo could, with considerably more difficulty, argue this way. RS has only analogy, rather weak in many respects, to rely upon.

Rather than view Đukanović as going from hero to villain to hero in the eyes of the international community, it would be more accurate to say that most people - even a casual observer like myself - could see what Đukanović's aim was and therefore the cobbling together of the SCG entity was largely a delaying tactic to avoid heaping instability upon instability too quickly. Independence was always a likely - if sometimes reluctantly accepted - outcome and the 55% requirement, while undeniably arbitrary, did serve a useful function.

Dodik also appears to have time on his side. The SAA will not make one iota of difference to the average resident of RS for a long time. Indeed, my impression is that most people in BiH generally see joining the EU as either a very distant prospect or something which will never happen. This is inevitable: the move from SAA to membership cannot be achieved quickly and the benefits along the way will be far from obvious. (Here, I think, the EU has been rather lax in promoting its advantages.) The time-scale certainly allows politicians within RS to stall progress but time can work against Dodik as well as for him. The stalling would have to be constant and sustained - but constant negativity is hard to sustain (as well as being sometimes disadvantageous) and small concessions do accumulate. I am sure Dodik - along with other politicians within BiH would be happy to see the OHR go. The strange omission in the article is what the influence of Russia might be in that happening and exactly how important the disappearance of the OHR might be, (as well as the likely effects of that eventuality on the whole of BiH).

Really, the analysis seems to be mired in the 1990s. While nobody would suggest that the US has little influence in the Balkans, the balance of influences has changed over the past decade or so. This is not the EU of the 1990s - and I doubt it is quite as naive as Montgomery seems to imply.

And the most important word in his final paragraph is 'if'....

Mr. Montgomery, you suggest that the EU and the US were against the secession of Montenegro. Sure, their diplomats talked that way. But at the same time they told Montenegro that as an independent state it would receive more aid and - unconnected from the maligned Serbia - had a good chance to get faster into the EU. The Montengrins were smart enough to see which signal they had to follow - as before the Croats, Slovenes, Bosnians and Macedionians.

You state that Montenegro made a good impression in the West by accepting the 55% barrier. You forget to mention that that was compensated by denying the (mostly anti-independence) emigrants to Serbia voting rights while they were given to the (mostly pro-independence) emigrants to other areas. It was yet another case that gives the West's handling of the Balkans such a bad name.

Unlike in Montenegro that voted only hesitantly for independence the support in the RS is rather strong. It doesn't help that the international community until the present day hasn't chosen how they want Bosnia to look in the end: a Switzerland with three equal groups or a Muslim dominated republic. Dayton follows the first model but we keep hearing diplomats advocating the second model - claiming that Dayton is outdated. As long as the international community doesn't get its act together on this subject I see little chance for Bosnia to survive. And even then a change of heart on the Muslim side would be necessary.

“Bad Gorilla, since when did Kosovo exist as a country?
You give Montenegro the right to secede because it was a country once upon a time, but by what reason do you give Kosovo the right to do the same from Serbia?”

Because Kosovo had an clearly an Albanian majority since the 19th century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image%3ABalkans-ethnique.JPG), because Kosovo is a separated entity from Central Serbia since 1945, because Kosovo since 1974 was governed independently from Central Serbia, with its own assembly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Communists_of_Kosovo), Albanian-language universities and press, because since 1980 Kosovo had equal rights with Central Serbia, Vojvodina, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Macedonia with the sharing of the presidency of Yugoslavia in Belgrade; and mainly because Slobodan Milosevic, the same man that commanded the massacre of Bosnians and Croatians to expand the Yugoslav borders of Serbia and illegaly annuled the autonomies of Kosovo and Vojvodia to put all of Yugoslavia under Central Serbia’s Communist Party rule, enginered the mass killing, rape and expulsion of the Kosovars to create a Serb-dominated and Serb-populated province. He was just stopped because of NATO decisive intervention.

To talk about Republika Srpska’s “independence” after all that happened (http://www.un.org/icty/indictment/english/mla-ai021010e.htm) and continues to happening (http://uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKL15646923._CH_.242020080715) is an insult to the memory of the fallen and a reward to people who still follow people like Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic.

And a government that goes like this (http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/07/16/bosher19381.htm) hardly can be defined as a “role model”…

@Bad gorilla

Does your memory of the fallen in #17 include all the Serbs rounded up and sent to Jasenovac? Does it include the Serbs from Bratunac massacred by Naser Oric? Does it also include the thousands of other Serbs killed in the last war? Does it include all the Serbs persecuted by Muslims during the Ottoman period?

Instead of spreading propaganda, I think it's time we make sure tragedies like this don't occur in the future. That's why Srpska Republika will need to say au revoir to Bosnia.

Bad gorilla, You can link,link all over the place but you just cannot show me where and when did Kosovo exist as a country.

Until you can show me Kosovo as an independent sovereign country please don't bother linking all over the place. It's useless as it doesn't answer my question.

OK,so if Kosovo is officaly declared independent,which is 21 nations recognising it for now,then the Serb REpublic has the right to do the same thing,and that may even,unfortunately set a chain event making much more regions going independent,even Greenland and Quebec even.Still,another thing is that if Srpska gets independent,then there is no reason for two same people territoryies to be apart,meaning that there is a powerfull possiblity that Srpksa unites with Serbia.Further more,not all of Kosovo has Albanian minority,it's north is Serbian,so it can declare it's own independence and unite back with Serbia,so the question is,will Serbia loose or gain from Kosovo independence?